Sunny but Cool
The weather will be quiet and sunny for a change across the Finger Lakes, though temperatures will remain quite cool for the St. Patrick’s Day weekend.
Clear skies finally worked into the entire Finger Lakes region Friday night as high pressure builds in from the west.This will result in a sunny Saturday from start to finish.
This sunshine should last for a while as our busy weather pattern settles down.
Temperatures Saturday will rise from the teens towards the low 30s, but the wind will remain a bit gusty. Top gusts Saturday will not be quite as strong as on Friday, but could still approach 30 mph at times.
Even colder temperatures are expected Saturday night, with morning lows Sunday mostly in the single digits and low teens.
More sunshine is expected on Sunday, though a few scattered clouds may sneak in, especially during the afternoon.
Highs on Sunday will be a bit warmer, especially across southern and western areas, which could push towards 40 degrees.
Quiet Continues Into Next Week
Monday will likely be another sunny, cool day. Winds will turn towards the north, bringing some cold air back into the region. Look for highs in the upper 20s.
The shift in the wind will be in response to a developing storm system over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This will be the much hyped up fourth storm of March.
However, over the last two cycles of models, the European Ensembles have almost completely abandoned the idea of seeing any snow, let alone a significant amount. Other models actually agree with this, keeping the storm system well south across the lower Mid-Atlantic before heading pretty harmlessly out to sea.
The energy that will spawn this system has just moved onto the North American continent, where the amount of data on the system will be greatly increased. This data will be fed into the models, so we will have to see if there are any more shifts.
I’ve seen the models abandon an idea 3-5 days out, only to come back to it at the last second. However, with the agreement as strong among the models as it is, perhaps this time we really will get completely passed by.
Assuming we do get missed, look for more sunshine on Tuesday and possible into Wednesday with temperatures remaining near or below the freezing mark.
