Rainy Tuesday Afternoon
An area of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes will bring rain and wind to the Finger Lakes on Tuesday.
Southeast winds flowing in towards the low pressure center are already in place early this morning. These winds will strengthen as the morning goes on with gusts increasing to 30-35 mph.
Skies have already clouded over as warm air aloft out ahead of the low pressure system surges northeast. Back to the west, a large area of rain is falling.
This rain will make its way into the western Finger Lakes this morning before overspreading the remainder of the area during the early afternoon hours.
Most of the rain will be steady, but not overly heavy, though one or two pockets of briefly heavier rain may develop.
Temperatures for most areas will push into the low or mid 40s this morning, then fall slightly this afternoon as the rain moves in.
There is a small chance for a little sleet to mix in over pockets of the Southern Tier, but the vast majority of the region will just see rain.
Rain will continue into the evening hours before pushing east after midnight.
Total rain amounts for most areas will be more than a quarter-inch, but less than a half-inch. Flooding issues are not anticipated.
Fair Wednesday Before More Rain
The weather on Wednesday may end up being fairly decent between storm systems.
Tuesday’s rain maker will move off the east coast while a second system will still be off to the southwest.
In between, a mix of clouds and some sun should be expected for Wednesday.
Temperatures should be close to the seasonal averages, with mid and upper 40s for highs.
Unlike today, winds should be very light as well.
Rain and some wind will move back into the Finger Lakes late Thursday into Thursday night. Rainfall amounts should again be under a half-inch.
Temperatures Thursday should be near 50 degrees.
Cool Pattern Returns
Friday and Saturday both look like nice days in the Finger Lakes with some sunshine and temperatures near or slightly above normal.
However, a storm system will make its way towards our region on or just after Easter Sunday, ushering in a chilly start to the month of April.
The first week, perhaps two of April look cold and unsettled. Temperatures at this point are expected to hover around 40 degrees, but there will inevitably be some variability.
This late in the season, identifying potential snow threats becomes very tricky more than a day or two out. It will be increasingly difficult to be cold enough for snow and the weather models often have a hard time dealing with rain/snow decisions this late (or very early) in the season.
As we all well know, our region is far from exempt from snow in April and we do see at least some most years.
Given the pattern setting up, and how the European Ensemble members look, I would not at all be surprised to see more snow in our future.
Do not be surprised if the cool pattern sticks around for most of April. The good news is that average by the end of April is low 60s, so even a ten-degrees colder than normal air mass by then will be better than what we have now.
Spring will make it here….eventually.
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