Week starts comfortable, ends hot

finger lakes weather forecast monday june 25 2018 comfortable temperatures
The week will start on a comfortable note, but the weather will turn active with midweek thunderstorms and late week heat. [Photo by Joan Lockwood]

Week Starts Out Nice

The weather across the Finger Lakes will start out tranquil and comfortable this week but will become more active and much hotter before long.

A sprawling area of high pressure is building into eastern Canada, pushing this weekend’s storm system further away from our region.

A few clouds this morning have already been replaced by bright, sunny skies for most of the region. The sunshine will stick with us through today and tomorrow with the high pressure keeping a firm grip on our weather.

Temperatures will be a bit below normal, but rather comfortable. Look for high temperatures to top out around 70 degrees today.

A north wind will blow throughout the day, gusting to around 20 mph for western areas and just below 30 mph for eastern areas.

The wind will die off tonight and high pressure will move in overhead. The clear skies, calm winds, and very dry air will combine for a cool, almost chilly night.

Morning lows Tuesday will range from the low 50s down into the mid or even low 40s. Temperatures will quickly rise once the sun is up, with a high Tuesday all the way into the upper 70s.

Tuesday will also be sunny, but a few high clouds may filter some of the sunshine.

Storms(?), Then Heat

The focus will then turn to an area of low pressure that will lift out of the Ohio Valley and into southern Canada on Wednesday. This is a favored track for wind and severe weather, but as usual, the set up is muddled with uncertainties.

There will be plenty of wind in the atmosphere to support storm organization and a front to trigger storms. Instability, the fuel necessary for thunderstorm growth, is what is uncertain. Further complicating the matters over the Finger Lakes is that storms may not arrive until after sunset.

The models have been hinting at the severe weather potential for a week now, but have backed off some in the last few runs. This trend could easily still reverse. Stay tuned over the next two days as I continue to monitor this scenario closely.

Heat and humidity will become a major talking point by the latter part of the week. A prolonged period of hot weather, peaking this weekend, is expected.

Temperatures will start to reach 90 degrees on Saturday, but by Sunday, some areas could approach 100 degrees. Once the high humidity is factored in, heat index values will likely be dangerous through the weekend.

Above normal temperatures will likely persist well into early July, though it may not be quite that scorching hot.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). When not forecasting, he can be found working at the local library, making goat milk soap, running until his legs burn, or playing with his three young boys.

  1. John Gregoire
    |

    Out of curiosity, does anyone create forecasts from data sets and not computer models these days? I often what would happen in the event of a massive EMP or some other event that would cause a blackout of everything with a chip. When I taught at Annapolis, celestial navigation and weather forecasting were required subjects. These days they do not teach that nor do students know how to use basic instruments like the sextant. It is much worse in the civilian world of shipping.