Gray, Showery Day
Rain showers are widespread throughout the Finger Lakes Friday morning and will continue throughout most of the day.
A dip in the jet stream over the Mississippi Valley continues to lead to a steady stream of moisture and small weather systems lifting north from the Gulf of Mexico.
These small, individual systems and their impacts have been difficult to nail down. Today, however, the rain is already here and there is little reason to think much will change during the course of the day.
Most of the rain today will be light. A few thundery downpours may develop this afternoon, particularly across the southeastern Finger Lakes (Elmira, Ithaca, Cortland) and perhaps the far western reaches (west of I-390). For the eastern Southern Tier, a flash flood watch is in effect due to all the rain that has fallen in those areas over the last couple of weeks. Flooding seems unlikely elsewhere.
It will likely not rain constantly all day, but showers will be on and off. Rain amounts for most areas will be under a quarter-inch today.
Rain showers will taper off from west to east overnight. Areas west of Seneca Lake should be mostly done with the rain by midnight, but areas to the east of Cayuga Lake may not clear out until just before dawn.
Temperatures today will mostly hold in the mid and upper 70s.
Sunshine Returns this Weekend
The stagnant atmospheric pattern we have been stuck in will finally pack up and leave this weekend.
Skies Saturday will transition from some morning clouds to a mix of sun and clouds for the afternoon. Before the day is done, skies should become mostly clear.
Temperatures Saturday will be pleasant. Look for afternoon highs in the low 80s. The humidity will come down slightly, but it will still be a bit on the muggy side with dewpoints ranging through the 60s.
Saturday night will be clear with light winds, but those elevated dewpoints will keep temperatures up. Typical late-summer valley fog will likely form Saturday night into Sunday morning as the temperatures settle in the low and mid 60s.
Sunday should be a sunny, warm day. A light south wind will kick in, helping give temperatures a boost.
Look for highs Sunday afternoon in the upper and mid 80s. The Rochester area could approach 90 degrees.
Sunny, hot conditions will continue for Monday with many places near or above 90 degrees. Thunderstorms will become possible on Tuesday, breaking the heat.
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John Gregoire
Drew, would you please explain Dew Pt and how it relates to Relative Humidity? The latter is the more common on home wx machines. Of course, there are conversions online but I wonder why the D values are more important than the humidity values.
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Relative humidity is how much moisture is in the air relative to the temperature. Colder air can hold less moisture. So, it could be 20º with a relative humidity of 100%…and yet the atmosphere at 80% with 70% humidity has way, way more moisture.
The dewpoint is a measure of what temperature water will condense at. A bit of a jargony technical definition, but I like to use it in the summer because, in application, it is somewhat intuitive because it works like temperature. The higher the dewpoint, the more humid it feels.
These two are related, as the relative humidity is calculated by dividing the dewpoint and the temperature. So, if the dewpoint and temperature are the same, the relative humidity is 100%. It doesn’t matter if that happens at 0º, 45º, or 75º.