First System Monday Night
Above normal temperatures will persist throughout the week as a warm weather pattern remains in place.
Temperatures range throughout the 40s Monday morning, setting the stage for what may be the warmest day of the week.
Some morning clouds should burn off, leaving a period of sunny skies late this morning into the early afternoon.
This sunshine, along with a south wind, should help propel temperatures into the mid 50s. A few upper 50s are possible across Monroe, Wayne, and Ontario county.
Clouds will start to move in during the afternoon as an area of low pressure moves along a stalled out front to our north.
Rain showers will move through during the latter half of the evening and into the overnight period. The rain should be done before dawn on Tuesday with just one or two-tenths of an inch falling.
Temperatures will hold in the low 40s overnight but will start to drop behind the rain Tuesday morning. Expect temperatures to fall through the 30s.
Northwest winds will be a bit blustery on Tuesday. Little if any sun will shine with low clouds remaining thick. Precipitation should be limited to a couple stray flurries.
Next System Wednesday-Thursday
Warn air will try to push back towards the Finger Lakes on Wednesday.
Precipitation will begin to work in from the southwest during the second half of the morning. Temperatures at the surface should still be near or below freezing but rising above freezing aloft.
A period of light freezing rain will therefore be possible during the late morning and early afternoon.
The window for ice may be narrow and many areas may skip the ice and turn right to rain as warmer air works in. The best chances for ice will be along and north of I-90 and into Central New York.
Rain will fall through the afternoon and evening as temperatures peak around 40 degrees. As much as a half-inch of precipitation could fall.
Thursday will have a few rain showers as temperatures again push towards the 50s.
Rain will become widespread again Thursday night, ending as a little snow early Friday morning. Some areas could see an additional half-inch or more of rain. Snow accumulations are not expected.
This warm pattern is not expected to persist beyond this week, nor are there any signs of another arctic blast.
As we head into the middle of February, look for typical temperatures with daily highs in the 25-35 degrees range. The weather pattern does look to remain active though.
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