At Least it is Sunny
The work week is off to a chilly start across the Finger Lakes.
A cold front moved through the region yesterday. The low pressure associated with the front remains to our north over Canada.
Cool air will continue to flood into the Finger Lakes on northwest winds. AS the sun climbs higher in the sky this morning, those winds will become rather blustery. Gusts over 30 mph will be commonplace throughout the day and will not let up until the sun sinks this evening.
Skies will be sunny much of the day. Some clouds are possible during the midday and early afternoon hours especially. A stray rain shower cannot totally be ruled out, especially north and east of Auburn.
Despite the sunshine, the cold winds will win out today. High temperatures will fail to reach 60 degrees for most of the area. Highs may only reach the mid 50s in the higher elevations of Central New York and the western Southern Tier.
Geneva, which has a relatively short climate data history dating back to just 1969, has a shot at breaking its record for coldest maximum temperature today. That record stands at 57 degrees set in 1982. When all is said and done, I think the record will stand, however, with Geneva just sneaking above that.
Ithaca, which has a much longer climate data history going back to 1893 will not even come close to its record coldest maximum temperature. That mark stands at 47 degrees, set in 1945. Temperatures should be in the low 70s.
Slowly Warming
The sunshine will unfortunately not stick around.
A small disturbance will race southeast out of Canada on Tuesday. After a clear and cold start with morning temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees, clouds will thicken. By the early afternoon, rain showers will move in.
Most areas should see rain Tuesday afternoon, but far western portions of the Southern Tier, such as Allegany County, may get missed.
Winds will become southwesterly which will help temperatures rise a few additional degrees compared to today. Highs will generally be near or slightly above 60 degrees.
Temperatures will return to normal on Wednesday with highs reaching the low 70s. Another disturbance will bring some showers and a few afternoon thunderstorms. Severe weather and flooding are unlikely.
One final disturbance will swing through on Thursday. Like Wednesday, highs will be close to normal in the low 70s with scattered showers.
Hope for a Dry Pattern Emerges
After Thursday’s system, there is hope for several days of dry weather that will last through the weekend.
Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal. Friday will be the coolest with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Low 70s are more likely on Saturday with mid 70s possible on Sunday.
The overall pattern over the eastern United States looks much quieter over the next few weeks. That is not to say that there will not be rain or thunderstorms, but the daily barrage of showers may let up.
However, there could be a fly in the ointment. An area of disturbed weather over the Gulf of Mexico will move inland later this week via Texas. Regardless of any tropical development of this system, the developing stagnant weather pattern will result in this system meandering around the Deep South and Southeast for the better part of a week or more.
It is impossible to say whether any of this moisture makes it this far northeast, but if it does, it could interrupt our otherwise more tranquil weather.
Temperatures generally look to remain near or slightly below normal well into June with little chance for significantly hot weather.
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