Dry Weekend Ahead
After missing out on most of the rain yesterday, the Finger Lakes is facing another multi-day stretch of dry weather.
I believe our region missed out on most of the rain yesterday for several reasons, most of which I mentioned between my posts Wednesday and Thursday. The overall set-up for thunderstorms was adequate, but not strong. Indeed, there were numerous storms to our north and south, including wind damage across the North Country and a Flash Flood Warning in Oneida County.
However, as I watched the radar yesterday, it became evident that Lake Ontario was having a limiting effect on our region. With other parameters marginal, the cooler lake waters helped prevent storms from firing up. By the time the front emerged onshore from the northwest, the daytime heating was lost.
Now, the front is well to the east and high pressure is nosing in from the southwest. Cloudy areas are mixing with some clearing this morning and will continue to do so into the early afternoon. Eventually, the sunshine will win out and skies will become mostly clear by this evening.
Temperatures will be much cooler today with highs in the mid 70s. The humidity will be much lower as well.
Some of the heat will come right back at us tomorrow with highs in the mid 80s. The humidity will remain lower, however, with dewpoints Saturday only in the 50s.
A new front will skirt by the area during the evening. With the dry air in place, only a few brief, light showers are expected. Most areas will not see any rain, and those that do will not see appreciable amounts.
Behind this front, Sunday will turn out similar to today. Expect some morning clouds with increasing sun, low humidity, and temperatures in the mid 70s.
Looking to Next Week
Monday will be another dry, sunny day across the Finger Lakes. Temperatures will be a bit warmer than on Sunday with low 80s returning.
Tuesday looks hot across the region with upper 80s and low 90s widespread. The humidity will rise as well with dewpoints well into the 60s. That will cause it to feel a few degrees hotter yet.
There is a chance for some late day showers and thunderstorms given the warm, muggy environment. The main question will be what mechanisms will be present to trigger any activity.
Wednesday seems to have a better chance for afternoon showers and storms, but this too is uncertain given how far in advance it is. If storms pop up, temperatures may get held in the 80s. Otherwise, Wednesday could turn out even hotter than Tuesday.
Confidence continues to decrease as we go into Thursday and Friday. Adding complication to the forecast is the potential for moisture from Tropical Storm Barry to make its way into our region.
At some point next week, our region should see rain. It is just a matter of when, and how much.
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