Weekend Weather Notes: Sunshine, when will it rain, Barry Update

finger lakes weather forecast saturday july 13 2019 weekend weather when will it rain tropical storm barry
A mostly dry weekend is in store for the Finger Lakes before rain chances increase next week, partially due to Tropical Storm Barry. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Weekend Weather Forecast

High pressure has built into the Ohio Valley and will be the primary force in our weather this weekend.

Saturday will be quite sunny and warm, though humidity levels will remain tolerable. High temperatures will range through the 80s this afternoon. As usual, the higher elevations of the Southern Tier and Central New York will be coolest with low 80s, while a few upper 80s will be possible along and north of I-90.

A small cold front will approach the area from the northwest late in the afternoon. With the dry atmosphere, it will be hard for any showers or storms to get going. Still, one or two may be able to fire up, especially along and west of I-390. Most areas should not see rain though.

Some clouds lingering behind the front will be in the area Sunday morning. These will burn off by the afternoon. The clouds should be less than Friday’s cloud cover and quicker to depart.

Sunday will turn out 5-10 degrees cooler than Saturday behind the front. Look for highs mostly in the mid and upper 70s. Humidity levels will remain low with a northwest breeze.

Clear skies and decreasing winds should send temperatures back into the 50s Sunday night.

Rain Chances Next Week

The Finger Lakes has a good chance at seeing some rain next week, though the details remain less than certain.

First, Monday will be another quiet, sunny day. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s and low 80s.

A weak system may take aim at the area on Tuesday. If this small feature moves through, it could trigger some rain and thunder. It would also keep temperatures in check. However, if it misses, a hot day is in store with 80s or 90s likely.

Wednesday should push towards 90 degrees with dry conditions expected.

The best chance for rain will come Thursday and/or Friday as a disturbance coming across the Great Lakes interacts with the leftover of Tropical Storm Barry.

This scenario is a double-whammy of uncertainty. First, the models typically struggle with these types of small systems. Second, inland tropical systems are also a thorn in the side of the models. We will definitely need to take a wait and see approach to the weather later in the week. Be wary of weather hype.

Tropical Storm Barry

tropical storm barry path wind gusts saturday july 13 2019 7 am
This map shows the track (pink) and forecast (yellow) of Tropical Storm Barry along with the radar and wind gusts as of 7 am EDT on Saturday, July 13, 2019. Click to enlarge.

Speaking of Barry, here is the latest.

Barry is located just south of the Louisiana coast this morning holding steady as a strong tropical storm. It still could become a minimal hurricane before making landfall, but the designation does not really matter as the impacts will be the same either way.

As is often the case with tropical storms, the storm is asymmetrical. Most of the rain so far has been on the south side of the circulation, away from land. This will shift to the east side with torrential rains across the Mississippi River basin.

Water levels along the Mississippi remain high from the spring flooding in the Midwest, which can take weeks to work its way south. The extra rainfall will certainly not help. Flash flooding will also be a major concern even away from the Mississippi.

Barry will weaken considerably by Monday as it tracks up the Mississippi River before getting caught in the jet stream and moved east as a weak, but moisture laden low pressure system.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.