Despite increasing heat and humidity and strong background winds, the severe thunderstorm threat is very low today in the Finger Lakes.
As low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes, a warm front has pushed through the Finger Lakes.
If thunderstorms were to develop in this environment, severe weather would be a concern. However, with the warm front to our east and the cold front well to the west, there is little to nothing to trigger storms locally.
Furthermore, warm air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will also work against thunderstorm development.
The one exception will be the far eastern Finger Lakes. By the mid-afternoon, a few isolated thunderstorm cells will develop. These storms will rapidly move northeastward.
The window of opportunity between development and storms becoming severe in our region is very small given the fast forward speed expected. Still, an isolated damaging wind gust, some hail, or even a brief spin-up tornado are all possible, though very unlikely.
Between Cayuga, Tompkins, Chemung, Tioga, Cortland, and Onondaga counties, which are all in the Level 1 severe threat on the map above, I would be very surprised to see more than two or three severe storms and would not at all be surprised to see zero severe storms.
Only isolated showers are expected tonight across the entire region, with another small chance for showers late Monday. Attention will then turn to Tropical Storm Isaias and whether any rain associated with that system can make it into our region on Tuesday.
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