Noon Tuesday Update
We have gotten to the point in this winter weather event where it may be time to crumple up the old forecast and throw it away.
Snow bands have not been able to penetrate into the western half of the Finger Lakes this morning. Instead, they have almost completely dissipated while a new band has taken shape across Central New York.
At this point, the models are way off base and can no longer be relied upon.
I see no reason why the snow will suddenly be able to make it west when it has failed to do so thusfar. Therefore, for most areas west of Cayuga Lake, I am now only expected minor snow accumulations through Wednesday morning. Most areas will probably see under two inches.
Obviously, this is a tremendous miss from previous forecasts, even ones made just a few hours ago. The reality is looking nothing like what was consistently showing across multiple models.
This should not be too huge of a surprise though. Since Saturday, I’ve continually beat the drum of uncertainty on the timing, intensity, and westward progression of the snow bands. It turns out those uncertainties were even more justified than anyone could have imagined.
For areas to the east, occasional snow bands will probably still rotate into the area, gaining some enhancement from Lake Ontario tonight. A few more inches may fall in these areas. Cortland County has the best chance at seeing additional heavy snow, especially in the southeastern half of the county.
This is not the first time a complex storm has fooled models and meteorologists alike and it is highly unlikely to be the last time. Nonetheless, I hope I was able to communicate the uncertainties well enough to at least make such a large departure from the forecast not totally unexpected.
I thank you for you continued support and use of Finger Lakes Weather! I will continue to monitor the latest, and will let you know if everything changes again…because at this point, who knows! 🙂