Noon Tuesday Update
We have gotten to the point in this winter weather event where it may be time to crumple up the old forecast and throw it away.
Snow bands have not been able to penetrate into the western half of the Finger Lakes this morning. Instead, they have almost completely dissipated while a new band has taken shape across Central New York.
At this point, the models are way off base and can no longer be relied upon.
I see no reason why the snow will suddenly be able to make it west when it has failed to do so thusfar. Therefore, for most areas west of Cayuga Lake, I am now only expected minor snow accumulations through Wednesday morning. Most areas will probably see under two inches.
Obviously, this is a tremendous miss from previous forecasts, even ones made just a few hours ago. The reality is looking nothing like what was consistently showing across multiple models.
This should not be too huge of a surprise though. Since Saturday, I’ve continually beat the drum of uncertainty on the timing, intensity, and westward progression of the snow bands. It turns out those uncertainties were even more justified than anyone could have imagined.
For areas to the east, occasional snow bands will probably still rotate into the area, gaining some enhancement from Lake Ontario tonight. A few more inches may fall in these areas. Cortland County has the best chance at seeing additional heavy snow, especially in the southeastern half of the county.
This is not the first time a complex storm has fooled models and meteorologists alike and it is highly unlikely to be the last time. Nonetheless, I hope I was able to communicate the uncertainties well enough to at least make such a large departure from the forecast not totally unexpected.
I thank you for you continued support and use of Finger Lakes Weather! I will continue to monitor the latest, and will let you know if everything changes again…because at this point, who knows! 🙂
Dominic Costa
Wondering when an update report is coming? It seems like your second snow map was more accurate than your last. Thanks for all you do! You are best meteorologist around!
Deborah Barr Stevens
You were right Drew! 24 hrs ago you thought we might get 8-12 inches up here by Geneva. At 5p yesterday we had about 6. As of 5a today we have 13.5.
Gordon Stringer
I remember the storm of the century forecast in the early 80’s. Rochester was shut down; businesses sent everyone home. Storm never happened. Keep up the good work.
Linda Woodin
Mother Nature always has and most likely always will have HER SAY! She
enjoys playing tricks on us! After all, this “IS NY” and after 70+ years here,
that’s just the way it IS !! For the MOST part YOUR forecasts are the CLOSEST
to what REALITY IS ! No complaints from me on your forecasts!! THANKS and
please keep up your great work Drew !!
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Thanks Linda. You are spot on! There is still so much room for learning and improvement across the board in the science of meteorology!
Steve Barrows
Drew, I echo the comments of so many others…your forecasts are the best and most accurate by far. I would take you over the NWS any day for our region. Thanks for the hours you put in!
Miles Gray
Well drew, between 530 pm to 7pm this evening here in waterloo, 3.8 inches fell and it shows no sign of stopping anytime soon 🙂
Janet Keefe
You still ROCK!!!
Ryan Ross
Drew,
Your forecasts are are always the most accurate, don’t let this one discourage you! Like you said it is a multi-day complex storm system. I’m a local owner operator trucker and your forecasts help a lot with my schedule planning.
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Thanks, Ryan. I used to get really discouraged when something like this happened, but I’ve learned to accept it as part of the science and see what I can learn from it instead! I’m very glad my forecasts are useful for you. 🙂
John
Any insight as to why the snow bands aren’t moving as expected? Is something blocking them? Or are they not getting enough push from the other end?
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
I think it is a combination of factors including dry air, sinking motion in the atmosphere (which limits clouds and precipitation) and just poor model performance.
DEBORAH BARR STEVENS
You’ve done good! I am old enough to know by now that the weather is a fickle thing to forecast perfectly. Thank you for the heads up and for the updates.
Jessie
You’re the best! Thank you
Joyce Billing
Thank you Drew for the timely update. You rock!
Karen
Many thanks for your informative follow-up, Drew!
Mark C Schott
Drew,
You have consistently been the most accurate, dependable forecast to turn to! I tout your abilities, truth & dependability across my contacts at Cornell University. Thank You!
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Thank you so much Mark!