Wednesday Daytime
What: Snow showers gradually increasing late
Where: Region-wide, but especially the northwestern FLX
Impacts: Minimal → Low/Medium
Winds will spend the day slowly shifting to a southwesterly direction. This shift will take snow showers off Lake Erie and rotate them north through the region. As winds become better aligned along the long axis of Lake Erie, the snow will start to intensify as the band heads toward the Rochester area late this afternoon. Snow will also become more widespread throughout the region at the same time but will be light outside of the main snow band.
Most places will see little to no snow accumulation today with easy going travel conditions. Roads will get messy toward Rochester late in the day. Winds will be much lighter than yesterday with speeds around 10 mph and gusts around 20 mph. Afternoon highs will be in the mid and upper 20s.
New Year’s Eve (Including and just past Midnight)
What: Widespread snow with embedded strong squalls
Where: Working southeast across the region
Impacts: High
A cold front will pick up the Lake Erie snow band and move it southeast across the Finger Lakes during the mid to late evening hours. Around midnight, the primary squall should be moving out of the region, but additional snow showers and snow bursts will still be possible.
Snow will fall most of the evening but will be most intense with the squall. Low visibility and rapidly deteriorating road conditions will be likely. A brief period of gusty winds will also accompany the squall.
Temperatures will hover in the mid 20s until the front passes through, then will drop to the low and mid 10s overnight.
DID YOU KNOW? Snow squall warnings (along with Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm, and Flash Flood warnings) will post automatically to FLX Weather and will be visible at the top of every blog post and on the homepage!
Thursday
What: Lake effect snow showers
Where: Northeastern half of the region early, retreating northeast out of the area late
Impacts: Minor-Low
Thursday morning’s lake effect will be southeast of Lake Ontario, possibly making it as far south as a line from Rochester to Geneva to Ithaca. The lake effect should be moving quite a bit and not too strong overall, so accumulation in the northeastern half of the region should be limited to an inch or two. The lake effect will lift northeast in the afternoon, mostly exiting the area.
Thursday evening may have some lake effect off Lake Erie extending across the Southern Tier as far as Elmira. Minimal accumulation is expected.
Steady northwest winds will blow through the early afternoon with a few gusts over 25 mph. Winds will become more westerly over the afternoon.
It will be a cold day with most areas seeing a high between 15-20 degrees. Nighttime temperatures will range through the 10s.
Friday through Sunday
What: Localized areas of lake effect snow
Where: Mainly the far northeastern Finger Lakes and occasionally the Southern Tier
Impacts: Varied from none to medium
A prolonged period of cool air and westerly winds will keep lake effect going, but mainly just clipping the Finger Lakes region.
Friday will have limited lake effect in the area with snow showers confined to far northern Cayuga and Onondaga counties and far western Steuben County. Some sun will probably poke in and out of clouds elsewhere in the region.
Saturday may see light snow showers come south into Wayne, northern Cayuga County as far south as Auburn, and much of Onondaga County. Accumulations look minor.
After a little widespread light snow Saturday Night, Sunday will have a few snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario.
Temperatures throughout this time period will have highs in the low and mid 20s with overnight lows in the 10s. Thursday will be slightly colder.
Next Week
An overall warming trend is becoming well supported on the weather models, starting off with some light snow on Monday as the warmer air starts to move in.
By Tuesday, highs should be well into the 30s, where they will likely stay for the rest of the week.
The primary day next week for active weather looks to be Wednesday with some mixed precipitation, but mainly rain, possible.
Another potentially rainy system looks possible for next weekend.
As a whole, the weather should be much less hazardous and impactful next week.
Next Blog Post: Friday Morning—Happy New Year!
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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