Snow showers are likely today and on Friday as weather systems pass through, with lake effect in the Finger Lakes Thursday and this weekend. Even milder temperatures are expected on the other side of the weekend cold snap.
Tuesday
What: Snow showers, a few late squalls
Impacts: Minimal
Scattered flurries are passing through the region this morning. These will be followed by a break in the snow showers during the midday and first part of the afternoon. Scattered snow showers and a few squalls will return for the late afternoon and early evening hours. A quick coating of snow will be possible with some localized, brief travel impacts.
Temperatures will climb into the mid and upper 20s this afternoon on light southwest winds.
» For more details on today’s weather, check out the Tuesday Weather Planner.
Tuesday Night & Wednesday
What: Some lake effect snow
Where: Passing south through the northern half of the region, redeveloping over the extreme northeastern corner of the region
Impacts: Low
A band of lake effect snow will develop and drop south through the northern half of the region before dissipating tonight. This will happen between about 11 PM and 3 AM. Locally an inch or two may fall, mainly along or north of the Thruway.
Once this band dissipates, a new band will develop over extreme northeastern Wayne, far northern Cayuga, and northern Onondaga counties. This band will weaken after sunrise, but may linger well into the morning hours before it shifts out of the region. Another couple inches will be possible locally.
Outside of the lake effect, skies will be mostly cloudy but with a few breaks. Overnight lows will reach the single digits in the Southern Tier, but will stay in the mid 10s to the north. Afternoon highs should be around or slightly over 20 degrees.
Wednesday Night-Thursday
What: Lake effect returns, pushes further south
Where: Northern and eastern FLX, especially Wayne and Cayuga counties and immediately surrounding areas.
Impacts: Low
Another band of lake effect will push south late Wednesday evening, similar to what will happen tonight around midnight. Thursday morning, the band will redevelop across Wayne and Cayuga counties, spilling over at times into northern Seneca, northern and eastern Tompkins, southern Onondaga, and Cortland counties. Accumulations will range from a coating to locally several inches. The snow will linger into the afternoon before shifting winds cuts it off.
Wind speeds will remain light. Overnight temperatures will be near or above 10 degrees for most, and afternoon highs will be around 20 degrees.
Friday Afternoon & Night
What: Flurries and squalls, followed by wind and cold
Impacts: Uncertain
A cold front will pass through the region Friday night. Snow showers are likely ahead of the front, with the chance for squalls accompanying the front. Details are still uncertain, but Friday evening in particular may have some locally tricky weather to navigate.
Temperatures will make it into the mid and upper 20s ahead of the front Friday afternoon. By Saturday morning, however, temperatures will be barely staying above zero.
Winds will also pick up substantially behind the front Friday night, coming in from the northwest with gusts potentially to 40 mph. Blowing snow and hazardous wind chills will be likely.
Saturday & Sunday
What: Lake effect snow, wind, cold
Impacts: Varied, but potentially significant
A spray of lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario is likely both Saturday and Sunday. The snow on Saturday has the better chance at being organized and heavier. Over the weekend, some areas could see moderate accumulations, while others see little to nothing.
Cold air and wind chills will be a more widespread hazard. Temperatures Saturday will struggle to rise much at all with highs possibly reaching the mid 0s. Northwest winds will increase further with gusts to 45 mph, producing wind chill values below -10 throughout the day. Wind chills as low as -30 are not out of the question sometime on Saturday.
Sunday will be a little less windy and a little less cold, reducing but not removing the wind chill hazard. Snow will also linger.
Next Week
This cold shot will be quick to pass through with temperatures quickly moderating over the first half of next week. Temperatures should be in the 30s daily by the middle and end of next week, through next weekend, and possibly beyond.
The first half of next week looks quiet. The weather pattern may pick up after that, but there are not any well defined threats showing on the weather models.
Longer range weather models still favor cold temperatures overall throughout February and into March.
Ol’ Phil may get it right this year for once…
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