An active weather pattern will bring several opportunities for snow or mixed precipitation over the next week or so, but no big invasions of deep cold.
Thursday
What: Areas of fog, drizzle
Impacts: Low visibility; A few spots of black ice this morning
Low-level moisture remains trapped near the ground, enhanced by snowmelt and yesterday’s rain. Areas of fog, some dense, will persist through the day. Some areas will see improvement by the afternoon.
There will also be patchy drizzle, especially this morning. With temperatures hovering around the freezing mark, a few slick spots will be possible, especially on driveways and sidewalks… but also on some untreated roads and bridges. The ice threat will diminish over the course of the morning as temperatures begin to rise with most areas into the 40s this afternoon.
» For more details on today’s weather, check out the Thursday Weather Planner post from last evening.
Friday
What: Periods of rain; Some mixed precipitation over eastern and northern areas
Impacts: Wet roads, reduced visibility
Widespread precipitation will move back in Friday morning and become off-and-on during the afternoon hours. Much of what falls will be rain, but some sleet or snow may mix in at times. This will be most likely during the morning hours and especially in the northern and eastern halves of the region.
Temperatures should mainly be above freezing, so wintry conditions are not expected on the roadways. Areas of fog may persist into Friday as well, but stronger winds should limit how widespread the fog becomes. Those winds will be from the southeast at 10-20 mph with a few gusts over 30 mph in higher terrain.
Afternoon highs should be in the 40s again for most areas.
There will be a potential for a band of rain late in the afternoon or evening which could have a few rumbles of thunder. Precipitation will turn to snow showers behind this band as winds turn to the northwest and temperatures fall.
Saturday
What: A spray of lake effect snow showers
Impacts: Minor accumulations. Some snow on secondary and rural roads.
Snow showers off Lake Ontario will be common Saturday morning across the northern half of the region, with more on-and-off flurries across the south. A few places may see a couple inches of accumulation, but most areas will see an inch or less.
The snow will taper to flurries by the afternoon and should end completely for many areas. Winds will turn from the northwest to the north with speeds under 10 mph. Temperatures will start in the low 30s and only rise a couple degrees in the afternoon.
Sunday
What: Periods of snow, mainly light
Impacts: Minor accumulations. Some snow on secondary and rural roads.
Confidence is increasing in some steadier snow throughout Sunday, but with most of the snow remaining light. A general 1-3 inches of accumulation will be possible. Main roads should stay in good shape with temperatures near or above freezing, but some secondary and rural roads may get snowy if left untreated or lightly traversed.
Monday
What: Lingering snow showers
Impacts: Little if any snow accumulation
As usual, some snow showers are expected behind Sunday’s system off Lake Ontario. It is still a bit uncertain how long these will last or how widespread they will be. At this time, impacts look minimal and mainly in the morning hours. North and northwest winds will hold daytime temperatures to around 30 degrees, but Monday night will see temperatures in the 10s.
Tuesday
What: Cloudy and cool
Impacts: None
Northerly flow will bring in cold air, but rising pressure levels should limit the ability of Lake Ontario to produce snow. Still, it will be cloudy and a few stray flurries cannot be ruled out. After starting in the 10s, afternoon highs will be in the lower half of the 20s.
Long Range
A weather system is expected to move through sometime around Wednesday. Temperatures should get a boost with this system back into the 30s, so precipitation type is unclear at this point. Cold air will be lacking behind this system, with a chance at making another run at 40 degrees late next week or next weekend. Precipitation chances beyond Wednesday are too uncertain to pinpoint any specific threats.
Likewise, the temperature spread showing on the models beyond next weekend is too large to draw any firm conclusions for how March may start out for our area.
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