Weather Planner: Tuesday, March 31, 2026
Several rounds of rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday as a frontal boundary sits over the far northern reaches of the region. Tuesday morning and the late afternoon and evening look especially rainy. The late day period will need to be monitored for the chance for a couple isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Temperatures will be well into the 60s south of the Thruway, but near Lake Ontario, beneath the front, it may be much cooler with large fluctuations in temperature over both time and location.
The evening weather planner posts are designed to help you prepare for the next day by provide quick, time-specific forecasts before heading out. This is not necessarily a post you need to read start-to-finish, but you can easily navigate to the time periods that will affect your day. If you are looking for information beyond the date of this Weather Planner, check back in the mid-morning to see if an extended forecast has been posted.
Early Morning (3-7 AM)
Cloudy.
Areas of rain with embedded thundery downpours. Localized poor drainage and small stream flooding possible.
Southwest winds 10-15 mph, lighter north of the Thruway.
Temperatures in the mid 50s.
Morning (7-11 AM)
Mostly cloudy.
Early rain and thunder tapering to scattered showers. Localized poor drainage and small stream flooding possible.
Southwest winds 10-15 mph, lighter north of the Thruway.
Temperatures rising to near 60 degrees, except near Lake Ontario where it will be colder.
Midday (11 AM-1 PM)
Some breaks of sun. Otherwise, cloudy.
A few scattered showers.
Southwest winds 10-15 mph, lighter north of the Thruway.
Temperatures rising to the mid 60s, except near Lake Ontario where it will be colder.
Afternoon (1-5 PM)
Some breaks of sun. Otherwise, cloudy.
Scattered showers an thunderstorms increasing late.
Southwest winds around 10 mph, lighter north of the Thruway.
Temperatures between 65-70 degrees, but in the 50s north of the Thruway.
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Late Afternoon (5-7 PM)
Cloudy.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Any storms could become strong. Localized poor drainage and small stream flooding possible.
Southwest winds 5-10 mph.
Temperatures in the mid 60s, but in the 50s north of the Thruway.
Evening (7-10 PM)
Cloudy.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Any storms could become strong. Localized poor drainage and small stream flooding possible.
Southwest winds 10-15 mph
Temperatures falling to near 60 degrees with 50s near and north of the Thruway.
Overnight (11 PM-3 AM)
Cloudy.
Rain showers likely.
Southwest winds 10-15 mph, turning northwesterly late.
Temperatures falling to the mid 50s with 40s near and north of the Thruway.
David Seager
Sometime, could you explain for us the conditions under which thunderstorms may persist even far into the evening and early morning, and how do those enabling conditions contrast with times in which nightfall seems to make thunderstorms fade in power and even disappear later in the evening, even though they looked strong as they were coming earlier? Thanks!
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Hi David! Thunderstorms are very complex of course… but can be distilled down to 3 basic ingredients: moisture, instability, and lift. Moisture is pretty self explanatory, so let’s focus on the other two.
Lift is reference to something that causes air to rise… usually a front.
Instability is the most abstract and complex of the two. Basically, it is a byproduct of density, where warm air wants to rise above colder air. Temperature and moisture play a role here as well, but in a nut shell… once the lift gets the air moving, in an unstable atmosphere, it will keep rising. The more instability, the faster it rises and the more likely thunderstorms become.
On a typical summer day, instability rises with the temperature in the afternoon, then falls in the evening after sunset. That is why oftentimes storms dissipate after sunset.
Sometimes, there are other layers in the atmosphere that are unstable, even if the ground level surface layer isn’t. These are called “elevated” thunderstorms because they are not originating with the surface air… so it doesn’t matter nearly as much what is going on with the day-night cycle at the surface.
Or, other times, even when it turns to night, the surface can still be unstable… think of those warm (almost hot) sticky summer nights. Even after sunset, the atmosphere is still plenty unstable to support thunderstorms all night and into the morning.
To get severe thunderstorms, we need a 4th ingredient: wind shear. Shear just means differing winds (direction and/speed) in neighboring areas (horizontally or vertically).
The tricky part of forecasting is figuring out how the specific levels of all 3 (or 4) ingredients are going to play out. It is rare, especially here, that all ingredients are strongly present at the same time. Sometimes, an extreme value of 1 ingredient can compensate for very meager levels of one or 2. An example of this is a wintertime case where a strong front with strong shear can overcome very little moisture and instability to produce damaging winds in a squall line… even if there are only a couple flashes of lightning or none at all.
Some of the hardest events to forecast are when all 4 ingredients are present, but not strongly. Sometimes these fizzle to nothing…other times they pop for big events.
Hope that helps. Let me know if you have questions!