Temperatures will be at a low point today with highs in the low 20s, but warmer air will start to return tonight. By the end of the week, temperatures should be able to get into the 40s, only to come back down to current levels early next week. Additional cold-warm cycles are expected next week and beyond, as is typical of March.
Tuesday Daytime
What: Diminishing lake effect snow
Where: Eastern, then northeastern FLX
Impacts: Some snowy roads this morning
Northwest winds this morning will gradually turn more westerly, then southwesterly today. This will take the ongoing lake effect snow over the eastern Finger Lakes and pivot it to the north. By the middle of the day, the snow should mostly dissipate or move out of the area. Wind speeds will also drop as they shift, becoming nearly calm for a time late today.
The afternoon will be quiet with clouds and a few glimpses of sun. Highs will mainly be in the low 20s.
Tuesday Overnight
What: A period of snow
Impacts: 1-3 inches of accumulation. Poor late night travel conditions
South winds will start to increase this evening and will become blustery overnight. After initially dropping into the 10s this evening, temperatures will rise to the 25-30 degree range by dawn Wednesday.
Accompanying the surge of warm air will be an area of moderate to heavy snow. This should arrive in the hour or so leading up to midnight and will take a couple hours to cross the region. Since it will be quick moving, accumulations will be limited to 1-3 inches. However, the snow will come down hard at times, so late night travel conditions are expected to be poor.
» For more details on Tuesday’s weather, check out the Tuesday Weather Planner.
Wednesday
What: Scattered snow showers
Impacts: Minimal accumulation; Daytime travel in good shape
Blustery south winds Wednesday morning will turn westerly during the middle of the day. This wind shift will cap temperatures in the mid and locally upper 30s.
As the wind shifts, snow showers and perhaps some brief squalls will be possible during the midday and afternoon hours. These will only put down a coating of snow at most, and many roads will remain just wet with the warm temperatures.
Some isolated lake effect will be possible Wednesday night, but most areas will see little to no additional snow accumulation. Temperatures will drop to the low 20s.
Thursday through Saturday
What: More sun than clouds
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday are all looking quiet with temperatures undergoing another warming trend. Thursday will have highs in the low 30s, but Friday has a shot at 40 degrees.
Thursday is highly likely to be dry. Friday is a touch less certain with a weather system expected to pass across the Mid-Atlantic. It is still far enough out that a jog northward could at least introduce some additional clouds. However, the chances for snow have fallen even further and remain highly unlikely.
By Saturday, warm air will push in with highs in the 40-45 degree range throughout the region. Many areas will be on the higher end of that range. Skies should be a mix of sun and clouds.
Sunday and Monday
What: Cold air returns
A subtle front will pass through sometime late Saturday night or early Sunday. This will change the atmospheric flow, allowing cold air to quickly move back in. Temperatures Sunday will hover in the mid 20s, while Monday may have a hard time reaching 20 degrees. Quiet weather should remain, though, with just some scattered snow showers associated with the front.
Long Range
Temperatures will probably go through at least one more cycle next week, warming up and cooling down again. A mid-week weather system with precipitation will be possible. A more substantial warm up is being hinted at on the models starting next weekend and going into the following week.
Time will tell how that plays out, but be wary of “winter is over, spring is here” hype on social media.
March is a season of fluctuations and, as a whole, is one of our least stable months. Substantial warm ups are expected and often end with a rapid temperature crash and sudden return to wintery weather.
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