A frontal boundary will be over or near the region much of the week as it gets lifted north and south by passing weather systems. Many of the fine details of the week are uncertain as a result, but there will be a chance for locally heavy rain, thunderstorms, and perhaps even some localized severe weather, especially late Tuesday.
Monday
What: Some late showers. Rain overnight?
Much of the daytime hours will be cloudy but relatively quiet. The chances for rain showers will begin to increase during the afternoon showers. The first uncertainty of the week will be how widespread they become tonight. The highest chance for steadier rain, some heavier downpours, and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will be across the southern half of the region.
Rain is more likely to be widespread across the entire region during the late overnight and predawn hours, but this too remains somewhat uncertain.
Temperatures today will rise into the 60s with light but steady southwest winds. Overnight temperatures will only dip down into the 50s.
» For more details on today’s weather, see the Monday Weather Planner post.
Tuesday – Daytime
What: Morning rain possible; Split afternoon temperatures?
Rain from the overnight may continue into Tuesday morning, or perhaps a new area will move through. Either way, the morning has a higher chance for rain than the afternoon. The front will intensify over the northern parts of the region. For most areas, this means residing on the warm side of the front with highs even warmer than today. A few areas could easily hit 70 degrees, especially if some breaks of sun come out in the afternoon. However, the question is how far north of the Thruway will the front make it? For these areas, temperatures could conceivably join the rest of the area in the 60s… or be stuck as low as the upper 30s. Or, there may be a bit of both as the front wobbles around.
Tuesday – Evening
What: Locally severe thunderstorm potential—HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
Impacts: Hail, damaging winds, possible a tornado. Locally heavy rain.
The severe threat for Tuesday evening will be highly conditional on the position of the front and whether any of those breaks of sun show up in the afternoon. The atmosphere will have limited to modest amounts of fuel to work with, but a high degree of wind shear to work with.
Any severe threat is likely to be isolated to discrete storm cells, meaning most areas will not have much of a risk. But, should one or two of those storm cells develop and strengthen enough, all modes of severe weather, including the possibility for a tornado, will be possible. There may also be several rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms with this risk, though the primary risk will be in the evening hours.
Again, this remains highly uncertain and less likely than unlikely. But, the potential will need to be monitored closely.
Wednesday
What: Showers; Dropping temperatures
The front will slide south of the region on Wednesday, ushering in cooler air from the north. The morning hours will likely be warmer than the afternoon with temperatures retreating into the 40s. Scattered showers will be possible, especially in the morning, but heavy rain and thunderstorms are not expected.
Thursday
What: A few showers; Rising temperatures?
It looks as though the same front will come back north at some point on Thursday, allowing the warm air to start pushing back into the region. Exactly how this all plays out is highly uncertain this far in advance. If the front is slower, highs in the 50s or even 40s will be more likely. A quicker front could push highs toward the 60s. Most likely, some areas in the west will get quite warm, while cool air hangs on further east.
With the front passing through, scattered showers will again be possible. Likely Wednesday, though, it should not be a washout.
Friday
What: Warm, breezy, and at least a few showers
The front should be well north and east of the region on Friday, opening the area up to highs pushing 70 degrees. Southerly winds may be a bit breezy at times. At least a few showers may be about the area, with an outside chance for a more organized rain and thunderstorm event. It is looking more like that will hold off a couple more days, though, with only a minor cold front later Friday.
Saturday
What: A few showers. Still mild.
Saturday will probably not be as warm as Friday, but it should still be plenty mild. At this time, highs in the low 60s look reasonable, but this could change in either direction as we get closer. Some rain showers cannot be ruled out, but these should remain scattered with minimal impact.
Easter Sunday
What: Highly uncertain
Early indications are that another strong front may move through on Sunday. The details on what this looks like are too uncertain at this point in time. Possible scenarios include a day like Wednesday, where an early front causes temperatures to drop throughout the day; An afternoon front with heavy rain and thunder with at least chance for some strong winds; A day more like Friday, with a more minor front that brings some showers, but generally low impact and warm weather.
Next Week
Early indications are for a much quieter weather week next week. Sunday’s front will cool temperatures down slightly for the early part of the week. There may be a day in the 40s, but for the most part, temperatures look as though they will be reasonably mild in the 50s. The chances for more significant warming will increase late in the week, but just how warm remains to be seen.
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