A belt of active weather will serve as a pathway for multiple thunderstorm complexes over the coming days, pusher further south and further away from the Finger Lakes with each passing storm complex. This pattern will allow cooler air to seep into the region as rain chances decrease, though no day this week is totally guaranteed to be 100-percent shower free.
Published Monday, August 10
Monday
What: Afternoon showers and storms.
Rain is most likely this week on Monday afternoon. A complex of thunderstorms is moving across southeastern Michigan and northwestern Ohio early this morning. Rain extends north across Lake Erie and into Ontario, Canada. The bulk of the energy for this feature will pass into Pennsylvania, but activity along its northern edge should clip into the Finger Lakes region as well. The best chance for thunderstorms will be across the Southern Tier and perhaps the northeastern Finger Lakes, where some new activity may pop-up. The timing for these showers and storms will be during the mid to late afternoon. I will be monitoring conditions closely in case the atmosphere becomes a bit more supportive of widespread thunderstorm development.
Any storms that do move into or develop over the area will bring a chance for heavy downpours and locally strong wind gusts. A couple severe thunderstorm and/or flash flood warnings may be issued, but any severe weather or flooding should be on the low end of the intensity scale and should also remain isolated.
Outside of the mid to late afternoon storm chances, skies will be a mix of clouds and some breaks of sun. Temperatures will climb to around 80 degrees and dewpoints will rise back toward 70, making it feel muggy. Winds will be from the southwest and west and may be steady at times with speeds at or above 10 mph.
A few more stray showers may be possible overnight, but anything that falls should be light. Lows will be in the mid and upper 60s.
Tuesday
What: Showers possible, especially in the Southern Tier.
Another storm complex will pass by to the south on Tuesday. Depending on its timing and evolution, some rain may sneak north of the state line and into the Southern Tier. A couple of thunderstorms cannot be totally ruled out if the timing works out that this energy passes by in the mid to late afternoon. Most of the area north of the southern row of counties (Steuben, Chemung, Tioga) will generally stay dry. Uncertainty remains higher than normal for a 24-hour forecast, however, due to the uncertain nature of these storm complexes.
Afternoon highs will mainly be in the upper 70s on Tuesday, with dewpoints falling to the mid 60s. Clouds will mix with some occasional sunshine. Winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.
Wednesday
What: Sun and clouds. Maybe a stray shower.
By Wednesday, the active storm track should be far to the south without any chance at directly impacting our area. Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds. There will be a small chance for a brief, isolated pop-up shower in the afternoon. These will be the type that spit a little rain and move along in a few minutes, probably not even fully wetting the pavement. Most areas will simply just stay dry throughout the day.
Winds will remain from the northwest at 5-10 mph. Afternoon highs will be in the mid and upper 70s with dewpoints retreating to around 60. Nighttime temperatures will drop back to the low 60s with some pockets reaching the upper 50s with partly cloudy to clear skies.
Thursday
What: Sun and clouds. Maybe a stray shower.
Thursday will be much the same as Wednesday with the overall pattern remaining unchanged. Any rain will be limited to brief, isolated afternoon pop-up showers. Most areas will be dry. Winds will be from the west and northwest with speeds around or slightly over 5 mph. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 70s and nighttime temperatures will be in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Friday
What: Sun and clouds. Maybe a stray shower.
Friday also looks to follow suite with mainly dry conditions and a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will turn to the north and increase to near or over 10 mph. This will keep temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints in the mid 50s. Widespread mid 50s are expected Friday night.
Weekend
What: Maybe some rain Saturday night.
By the weekend, the forecast uncertainty rises further. Some models hint at an area of rain and thunderstorms Saturday night, possibly with some heavy rain. Others keep the cooler air in place, which does not preclude a rain event, but does not seem to match up well with the type of rain the other models are showing. Until this resolves better, rain cannot be ruled out even during the daytime hours of either Saturday or Sunday. Temperatures are also a bit uncertain, but will likely end up somewhere in the 70s both days. Stay tuned throughout the week if you have weekend plans.
Next Week
The uncertainty of the rain Saturday night spills over into Monday as some models show higher chances for rain then instead. Most of the remainder of the week looks quiet until rain chances tick up again late. Temperatures generally look as though they will stay in the 70s.
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