A single main weather system will pass through the area during the middle of this week. Ahead of this system, temperatures will gradually climb after a cool start to the week. Behind the system, they will slowly fall again. Most of the rain will likely fall on Thursday, though scattered showers will be possible as early as Tuesday night. Additional showers may be possible late in the weekend as a precursor to a potentially cool and unsettled week next week.
Published Monday, September 14
Monday
What: Sun and clouds. Cool.
No precipitation is expected today with plenty of sunshine and some fair weather clouds. A steady northwest wind will blow at around 10 mph, locking some cool air in place. Most areas will see a high in the mid and upper 60s this afternoon.
This evening, skies will clear and winds will turn calm, allowing temperatures to quickly fall into the 50s. A few thin clouds may move in overnight with a light south wind gradually developing. Temperatures will continue to fall, though, with widespread mid 40s and localized low 40s across the southern half of the region and upper 40s and low 50s to the north.
Tuesday
What: Occasionally filtered sunshine.
Tuesday will also have sun and clouds, but instead of fair weather clouds, most of the cloud cover will come in thin sheets high in the atmosphere. Even when these clouds pass through, at least some sunshine should filter through. And at other times, it will be very sunny. There is a very small chance for a couple drips of rain in the morning hours, but anything that falls will have a hard time reaching the ground and should be barely noticeable.
South winds will increase to around 10 mph, pushing temperatures up from the chilly start. Most areas should see highs in the low 70s, with mid 70s in the Genesee Valley and Rochester area. Some higher elevations, particularly around Cortland County, may not quite make it to 70 degrees.
Tuesday night may have a couple of stray showers, but most areas will likely stay dry. It will be a much warmer night with lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Wednesday
What: A few showers.
As temperatures and humidity levels continue to increase, a few stray showers may pop up on Wednesday. A stray rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out, either. The precipitation does not look overly widespread at this point, though there is still a bit of uncertainty. Outside of any of these stray showers, expect a mix of sun and clouds. South winds will be around 5 mph in the morning, but the wind may turn calm by the afternoon. Highs will reach the mid 70s for most. Dewpoints will become slightly muggy, reaching the mid 60s. The increase in humidity will keep it mild at night with lows in the mid 60s. A few nighttime showers cannot be ruled out.
Thursday
What: Scattered showers and storms.
The best chance for rain currently looks to come on Thursday when showers and storms pass through. The timing of the rain is a bit uncertain and could focus more on the first part of the day. A few downpours could lead to localized rain amounts around or over an inch, but most areas will probably see less. Temperatures will remain in the mid 70s. Humidity will increase further and become quite noticeable with dewpoints approaching 70.
Friday
What: Sun and clouds.
Friday looks dry and sunny with a few fair weather clouds. Winds will be out of the north, removing the humidity and bringing cooler air in. Highs will be in the low 70s and overnight lows Friday night will return to the 50s.
Saturday
What: Sun and clouds.
At this time, Saturday looks dry with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds may eventually turn around to the south, but afternoon highs should stay around 70 degrees.
Sunday
What: A few showers
The next batch of unsettled weather may start to move in by Sunday with some scattered showers. This is far enough out, however, that uncertainty is high; the day could end up dry and sunny, or the rain chances may increase. Temperatures will follow the cloud cover and precipitation chances.
Next Week
As a whole, next week looks cool and wet, though there is a large spread in the outlier solutions on the models, so uncertainty is high. Rain chances look particularly high during the first half of the week, but there is a lack of consistency on which day may be the rainiest.
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