Clouds will gradually increase today and rain will develop overnight as an over-hyped low pressure system begins to take shape to our south. This low will bring us rain throughout Thursday, with some areas turning to snow Thursday night as the low begins to strengthen along the coast. By Friday morning, the low will be well to our east and departing the region, leaving cold north winds in its wake. That will kick off some lake effect rain and snow showers that will linger into the weekend. High pressure will build in next week, bringing mainly dry weather and a slow recovery in temperatures.
Published Wednesday, November 11
Wednesday
What: Increasing clouds
Skies are starting as a mix of sun and thin clouds today. Over time, the clouds will gradually increase and thicken, though it may not become too cloudy until the afternoon. A few rain showers will start to develop during the evening hours, followed by an increase in showers and areas of steady rain after midnight. Winds will be light and variable and afternoon highs will reach the mid 50s. Overnight lows will be in the low 40s.
Thursday
What:Â Periods of rain
Areas of rain will persist for much of the daytime hours Thursday as low pressure begins to organize to our south. Much of this will be light rain, but over the southeastern Finger Lakes, there could be some heavier rainfall rates. By evening, most areas will see between one and three quarters of an inch, but localized amounts over an inch are possible to the southeast. Temperatures will not change much with highs in the mid 40s. Winds will be from the north-northeast at 10-15 mph.
As the sun begins to set, precipitation will be starting to pull east. Western areas may see the rain end, but eastern areas will see snow start to take over at higher elevations. A few hours of snow may be possible, which could lead to an inch or so of accumulation on grassy surfaces, mainly above a zone between 1000-1200 feet in elevation (external link: What’s My Elevation? tool). Accumulations at lower elevations are much less likely, and roads are not expected to have anything beyond minor impacts on rural, higher elevation roadways.
Scattered snow showers off Lake Ontario will develop during the overnight across the Finger Lakes, though the lake response looks limited, keeping these snow showers isolated. Overnight lows will reach the low 30s on average, with warmer and cooler pockets. North winds around 10 mph will persist through the night.
Friday
What: Rain and snow showers
The low pressure system will become stronger as it heads off the east coast by Friday. By this time, the precipitation associated with the low will be far to our east.
Still, Lake Ontario will provide a source of moisture with cold north winds blowing over it. Scattered rain and snow showers will be likely throughout the day. There may be some breaks of sun between the showers or flurries, especially in the afternoon. Any snow that briefly accumulates on grassy surfaces will likely melt quickly after the snow shower passes.
Temperatures will only reach the upper 30s and low 40s for a high on Friday. Winds will be from the north around 10 mph. Overnight lows will range from pockets of upper 20s up to mid 30s along the lakes. Scattered snow showers are likely to continue overnight.
Saturday
What: A few rain and snow showers
Linger lake effect flurries and showers will be possible on Saturday. The morning will likely have more activity than the afternoon, but like Friday, the chances for on and off spits of precipitation will linger through the day. Also like Friday, there may be some breaks of sun between showers and flurries. Temperatures will again remain somewhere around 40 degrees, depending on topography. Winds will be a bit stronger than Friday, coming from the northwest at 10-15 mph. Overnight lows will be in the low and mid 30s.
Sunday
What: Clouds, a few showers
Sunday looks rather cloudy, though a few brief glimpses of sun cannot be ruled out. Stray lake effect rain showers will continue to be possible, but most areas will be dry at any given time. Temperatures should warm slightly with highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds will remain at 10-15 mph.
Monday
What: Cloudy
Monday will be mostly cloudy. A stray shower cannot be ruled out, but these should be few and far between. Winds will be a bit lighter at around 10 mph, but still from the northwest. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 40s.
Tuesday
What: Sunny
High pressure is expected to take over with sunny skies. If the clouds clear out before sunrise, morning lows will be down around 30 degrees. Afternoon highs will then reach the mid and upper 40s.
Next Week
Temperatures should make their way back toward or above 50 degrees for the second half of next week. Quiet weather is expected to persist for a few days and possibly into the weekend.
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