After some showers Monday, temperatures will get a boost back toward 60 degrees on Tuesday with some sun. Late showers will be possible Wednesday, with at least some scattered showers Thursday. A coastal system may impact the area late in the week, but may also mostly miss the area. The snow hype is flying, but in reality, anything more than a light coating mainly over higher elevations will be tough to envision and is unlikely to occur. Still, confidence is low, so I will continue to monitor the situation closely, as I always do.
Published Monday, November 9
Monday
What: Scattered showers, blustery winds
A small disturbance rotating around a parent low pressure system is passing through the area this morning with showers and areas of rain. Scattered showers will persist into the midday, but should mostly end for the afternoon. A stray shower or some areas of drizzle will still be possible, and breaks of sun will be rare. Blustery northwest winds will blow with speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts as high as 35 mph. Temperatures will top out in the upper 40s and low 50s for most areas, with some mid 40s in higher elevations. This evening will be cloudy, but some breaks in the clouds will develop after midnight. Lows will vary quite a bit, ranging from the mid 30s in cold pockets to the low 40s along the lakes.
Tuesday
What: Sun and clouds
Tuesday will have a mix of sun and clouds. A stray shower cannot be ruled out, especially in the morning, when clouds will be more plentiful. The afternoon may turn mostly sunny for a time. Winds will be from the southwest in the morning and west in the afternoon. It will again be blustery, with wind speeds around or over 15 mph and gusts to 35 mph west of Seneca Lake and to 30 mph east. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 50s and low 60s. Tuesday night will be partly to mostly cloudy with a stray shower and lows in a similar range as tonight, ranging from the mid 30s in cold pockets to the low 40s along the lakes.
Wednesday
What: Early sun, late showers
Wednesday morning should start out with a mix of sun and clouds. During the afternoon, clouds will eventually increase and a few showers will be possible late in the day. Winds will be lighter, coming from the northwest at under 10 mph. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 50s.
Thursday
What:Â Scattered showers
Scattered showers will be possible on Thursday with a chance for some steadier rain late in the day, pending the development and location of a coastal low pressure system. Daytime temperatures will be much too warm for any chance of snow, with highs likely somewhere around 50 degrees. Thursday night is less certain, and should steadier precipitation build in, some snow could mix with the rain. At this time, though, that seems less likely to occur. Nighttime temperatures will be down into the 30s.
Winds will be from the east, then northeast, with speeds increasing to around 10 mph in the afternoon.
Friday
What: Rain and snow showers
Forecast confidence for Friday is low based on uncertainties with the potential coastal system. The main questions are whether this system impacts our region at all, not so much what our snow chances are. At this time, I am expecting some scattered rain and snow showers, possibly more from lake effect processes than a widespread coastal driven event. In this scenario, some higher elevations could see a morning dusting of snow, but widespread accumulations would be unlikely.
Should a steadier precipitation develop from a coastal low, I still think accumulations would be minor and limited mainly to higher elevations. Temperatures look too warm to expect much else, with afternoon highs pushing toward the low 40s.
I would expect precipitation to become more scattered Friday night, also reducing the chances for any notable snow accumulations with lows down around 30 degrees. Should widespread precipitation focus more on the nighttime hours, temperatures would likely stay in the mid 30s. Some lower elevations could see a coating with perhaps a couple inches in the hills. Again, though, I think this scenario is the high-end wintry scenario and is unlikely to occur.
Winds on Friday will be steady from the north with speeds slightly over 10 mph.
Saturday
What: A few rain and snow showers, mainly early
Linger lake effect flurries and showers will be possible Saturday morning. The afternoon will more thank likely be dry, possibly with a little sun poking out. Temperatures should again reach the low 40s. Winds will be similar to Friday, coming from the north slightly over 10 mph.
Sunday
What: Clouds
Sunday looks rather cloudy, but mostly dry. A stray shower cannot be ruled out, especially in the morning. Temperatures should warm slightly with highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds will be near 10 mph.
Next Week
Temperatures should slowly but steadily climb next week, making it back toward 50 by midweek. The weather looks quiet with mainly dry conditions expected.
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