Friday will still be on the mild side, but many places will have a hard time reaching 50 degrees on Saturday. Rain showers will be common on Saturday, though a few breaks of sun cannot be ruled out, either. Sunday will have a better chance for some sun before showers return late and continue into Monday. Late next week looks chilly and unsettled; be skeptical of snow storm hype, though.
Published Friday, November 6
Friday
What: Clouds, a few late showers
Most of Friday will remain dry, though the chance for a few showers will start to increase late this afternoon and will increase further after sunset. Skies will generally be cloudy, but some gaps in the clouds will allow for some breaks of sunshine here and there, especially in the morning. Temperatures will rise into the low and mid 60s this afternoon, with more areas pushing toward 65 degrees than staying closer to 60. Nighttime temperatures will mainly be in the upper 30s and low 40s.
Saturday
What: Frequent showers
An area of low pressure will pass just south of the Finger Lakes on Saturday. Skies will be cloudy with on and off showers throughout the day. A few periods of steadier rain are also possible, especially over the northeastern half of the region. Conversely, a few breaks of morning sun may be possible across the southwestern half. Wind speeds will be around 10 mph, but the direction will be variable as the low passes through. In the end, winds will end up from the northwest. High temperatures will be just under 50 degrees for most areas, though some of the typically milder areas will get just above 50. With clouds plentiful through the overnight, lows will be in the low 40s.
Sunday
What: Clouds, some sun. A few late showers.
Sunday will transition from cloudy early on to some sun, but then another increase in clouds with a few showers late in the afternoon. How long the sunny break between the two cloudy periods extends is a bit unclear, but it should be enough to push highs in the mid 50s with the help of steady southwest winds. Showers will increase for the nighttime hours with lows around 40 degrees.
Monday
What: Scattered showers, blustery winds
Monday will have scattered showers, but also possibly some breaks of sun between the showers. None of the rain will be heavy, and it should gradually diminish as the day goes on. It will be blustery with northwest winds of 15-20 mph and gusts of 30-40 mph possible. Afternoon highs will be in the low 50s with overnight lows around 40 degrees.
Tuesday
What: Sun and clouds
Tuesday will have a mix of sun and clouds. A stray shower cannot be ruled out, especially across the north, but most areas look dry. Winds will still be a bit blustery, but not as strong as on Monday and with a more westerly direction. Temperatures should make it into the upper 50s.
Wednesday
What: Scattered showers
A cold front is expected on Wednesday with some scattered, light rain showers. Winds will gradually turn to the northwest, with highs somewhere around 50 degrees. Cold air will build in further overnight, with lows down into the low 30s with a few rain showers and flurries.
Thursday
What:Â A few showers, perhaps flurries
The weather later next week is quite uncertain with cold temperatures perhaps leading to some lake effect precipitation, or perhaps a more widespread precipitation event. At this time, we will call for a few showers and perhaps a couple early flurries on Thursday. This is likely to change by the next post Monday morning.
Next Weekend: Hype Watch
Be very wary of hype that is already starting to fly regarding the potential for snow late next week or next weekend. I have already seen out of context single-image model data in local Facebook groups. While there is some noise on the models from a collection of outliers, it would not be enough even in the middle of winter to cause me to do more than curiously watch to see if any trend becomes established. But at the beginning of the season, the chances for it coming to fruition in an impactful manner are even less. As always, I am watching and will let you know where there is anything real to address.
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