A warm front will bring some morning clouds but a mild, sunny afternoon today. Clouds increase for Wednesday as low pressure begins to take form to our south. Rain will spread in Wednesday night and continue into Thursday. A strong low pressure will develop along the coast Thursday night, pulling cold air into the region. Lake Ontario will interact with moisture for the low to produce rain and snow showers Thursday night through Saturday morning. Snow accumulations will most likely be limited to minor amounts over higher elevations Thursday night. Cloudy, cool conditions are expected Sunday and Monday with dry weather and recovering temperatures later next week.
Published Tuesday, November 10
Tuesday
What: Sun and clouds
Clouds are in place early this morning, but the afternoon is expected to turn mostly sunny as a dry warm front pushes through the region. Expect breaks of sun through the morning, then substantial clearing during the midday. Some new clouds along a cold front may sneak in late, toward sunset. Mostly they will hold off until the nighttime hours, when a couple stray showers may also be possible. Southwest winds will turn to the west and become breezy. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s with some low 60s. Tonight, winds will drop and turn to the northwest with overnight lows in the upper 30s.
Wednesday
What: Mostly cloudy.
The best chance for some sun mixing with or filtering through clouds will be early on Wednesday. Over time, the clouds will increase and thicken, leaving a mainly overcast afternoon. A couple showers may pop up late in the afternoon before showers increase during the night. By the predawn hours, there may be areas of steady rain, especially in the eastern Finger Lakes. Winds will be light and variable and afternoon highs will reach the mid 50s. Overnight lows will be in the low 40s.
Thursday
What:Â Rain possible
A developing coastal low will influence our weather one way or another on Thursday. If the low develops quick enough and far enough west, we may see periods of steady rain throughout the day. If it is further east and slower to strengthen, a cloudy day with scattered showers is more likely. Either way, sunshine will be hard to come by and temperatures will be cool with highs in the upper 40s. North winds will blow and may become breezy with speeds over 10 mph.
Thursday night is likewise uncertain, with either continued widespread precipitation or more scattered activity. By this time, the coastal low will become strong, but the heaviest precipitation should be well to our east. Should widespread precipitation persist, it would likely be steady but fairly light. Whatever falls Thursday night will likely end up doing so as mainly snow with some rain in the typically warmer areas. If the snow is widespread, some higher elevations could see an inch or two. Accumulations over lower elevations would still be rather unlikely.
Friday
What: Rain and snow showers
The main part of the coastal storm will be well to our northeast by Friday. The question then becomes how much moisture is left behind, and how much influence do the lakes add to that. At a minimum, scattered lake effect rain and snow showers should be expected. This is more along the lines of what I expected.
However, there may be a continued area of light, widespread precipitation enhanced by the lakes. Snow accumulation during the daytime hours is unlikely, even over higher elevations that may stick as snow much of the day.
Temperatures will only reach the upper 30s and low 40s for a high on Friday. Winds will be from the north around 10 mph. Overnight lows will range from pockets of upper 20s to mid 30s along the lakes. Scattered snow showers are likely.
Saturday
What: A few rain and snow showers, mainly early
Linger lake effect flurries and showers will be possible Saturday morning. The afternoon will more thank likely be dry, possibly with a little sun poking out. Temperatures should reach the low 40s, though some higher elevations may still linger in the upper 30s. Winds will be a bit stronger than Friday, coming from the northwest at 10-15 mph.
Sunday
What: Clouds, maybe a few showers
Sunday looks rather cloudy, though a few brief glimpses of sun cannot be ruled out. A couple stray lake effect showers will also be possible, especially across the northern areas. Temperatures should warm slightly with highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds will be near 10 mph.
Monday
What: Clouds, maybe a few showers
There will be little change between Sunday and Monday. Skies will remain mostly cloudy with a few stray showers possible, but with most areas staying dry most of the time. Winds will be lighter at 5-10 mph, but still from the northwest. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 40s.
Next Week
Temperatures should slowly but steadily climb next week, making it back toward 50 by midweek. The weather looks quiet with mainly dry conditions expected.
Leave a Reply