A few pop up showers are expected Thursday afternoon, followed by dry days Friday and Saturday. Hurricane Isaias will make landfall along the central Gulf coast Friday night. Clouds associated with Isaias will gradually move in on Saturday, followed by some rain at some point on Sunday. This rain is not expected to be heavy, and winds will be lighter as this system passes through than they will be today or tomorrow. A cold front is expected next Tuesday, bringing an end to our run of 60º+ weather.
Published Thursday, October 8
Thursday
What: Sun and clouds. A couple late showers
A weak cold front has moved through the area early this morning. Skies are clear behind the front, so sunshine will be abundant through the the morning and midday hours. As cooler air works in aloft, the daytime heating of the surface will create an imbalance in the atmosphere. This will lead to developing and growing clouds, and eventually some scattered showers later this afternoon. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out, either. Not all areas will see rain, though, and most of what does fall should be brief.
West-northwest winds will increase this morning with speeds reaching nearly 15 mph. Winds will decrease late this afternoon, then turn to the southwest this evening. Daytime highs will mainly be in the mid 60s with some cooler pockets. Overnight lows will reach the mid 40s.
Friday
What:Â Sun and clouds
A stray shower over the northeastern parts of the region cannot be ruled out, mostly during the morning hours. The vast majority of the area will stay dry throughout the day. Skies will be sunny with some fair weather clouds.
Winds will be from the northwest at speeds up to 15 mph. Highs will be in the low and mid 60s. Nighttime temperatures will be in the mid 40s.
Saturday
What: Sun early, then clouds
Saturday looks bright and sunny to start, but the cloud shield associated with the remains of Hurricane Isaias will combat the departing high pressure system for control of our skies. While the timing is uncertain, overcast should gradually move in from south to north. Some limited sun may still shine through this layer. No rain is expected, though.
Winds will be from the south and southeast under 10 mph, increasing after sunset. Afternoon highs will be impacted by the cloud cover. As such, northern areas are generally expected to be warmer with a few possibly hitting 70 degrees. Meanwhile, mid 60s are more likely across the Southern Tier. Nighttime temperatures will be mild in the mid 50s.
Sunday
What: Late showers.
Rainfall associated with the remains of Hurricane Isaias will move into the Finger Lakes at some point on Sunday. While some models bring in the rain during the morning, the models I usually favor more tend to hold it off until the afternoon or even after sunset.
Rainfall out ahead of a tropical system, or its remains, can sometimes behave in unexpected ways. While I am currently sticking with a later arrival time for the rain, I could see a pathway to earlier rainfall. Eventually, the rain should arrive. The rain will not be heavy with amounts generally expected to be near or under a half inch. Wind will not be a concern, coming in from the southeast at around 10 mph.
High temperatures Sunday will most likely be in the mid 60s. Overnight lows will be warm in the upper 50s.
Monday
What: Mostly cloudy
A few lingering showers may be possible early Monday, but for the most part, it just looks like a mostly cloudy day. Sunshine will be most likely late. Winds are expected to be light and variable with temperatures reaching highs in the mid and upper 60s.
Tuesday
What: Showers at some point
A cold front will make its way through the area sometime on Tuesday. If the front is earlier in the day, there may be a period of gusty rain showers, followed by strong winds and falling temperatures. If the front arrives later in the day or overnight, its passage will likely be less dramatic. Expect the timing to continue to fluctuate over the coming days. Currently, models favor a late day front with highs still making it into the 60s.
Wednesday
What: Sun and clouds
High pressure will build in behind Tuesday’s front for a quiet, cool Wednesday. Highs will be in the mid 50s.
Late Next Week
Cool air is expected to remain in place late next week and into next weekend. While highs will be in the 50s, lows are generally expected to remain in the 40s. Some patchy frost cannot be ruled out if conditions align better than they are currently expected to. Rain chances seems to be consolidating around next Friday into Saturday.
Leave a Reply