Wednesday, September 2, 2026
Update Issued: 12:30 PM
Expires: 4 PM
The Storm Prediction Center has increased our severe thunderstorm threat to level 3 – Enhanced in their midday update. This is the second Enhanced risk this year, the other coming on July 18th. In 2025, we had one enhanced risk day.
This designation, as usual, is driven by the threat for damaging winds. Areas within the orange shading have a nearly 50-50 shot at seeing damaging winds within 25 miles of a given point. The hail threat is at 15%, and the tornado threat is at 5%. This is the fourth 5% tornado risk area this year. We have not seen the next level, 10%, since the high tornado activity of July 2024. It is also important to note that Conditional Intensity Group (CIG) is level 1, which means an increased risk for strong tornadoes should one occur. This is a new part of the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook and is the first time we have seen a CIG level for tornadoes.
The first batch of rain and thunderstorms this morning is now well off to the east and much of the area is seeing hazy sunshine now. This will aid in the atmosphere recovering and becoming suitable for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and early this evening.
It is now seeming increasingly likely that at least some severe weather is expected later today with a widespread/significant event becoming more possible. The short-term, high-resolution thunderstorm models are still a bit mixed on the timing and storm mode. I still expect scattered cells to combine into small but intense clusters that will have a significant wind threat and possibly a couple tornadoes. Some of the atmospheric parameters the models are showing are very impressive and if realized, could lead to significant and dangerous weather.
As the evening goes on, these clusters will build into a broader area of less intense thunderstorms. This broader area may drape itself from east to west across the area, leading to prolonged heavy rain and potential flash flooding. I am bit more concerned with flooding now than I was this morning. NOTE: As I created this update, the NWS office in Binghamton issued a flood watch for much of the Finger Lakes region.
I am continuing to watch the radar, models, and latest data. The next Storm Prediction Center update to the risk levels will be at 4 PM, but I do not expect much to change. A severe thunderstorm (or tornado) watch will almost certainly be issued later this afternoon or early this evening, and many areas will end up under a warning at some point.
Stay tuned.
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