A stalled out frontal boundary will bring waves of precipitation, some potentially heavy or with strong thunderstorms, through the middle of the week. During this time it will be humid with warm, muggy nights. The best chance for dry weather will come late in the week, when temperatures and dewpoints will drop back a bit. Some more showers will be possible this weekend, but uncertainty remains high.
Published Monday, August 31
Monday
What: Showers, occasional rain and thunder.
Several waves of atmospheric energy will pass through the area over the next 24-hours, bringing areas of rain and thunder. The first of these will move in from the northwest for the latter half of the morning and midday hours. Another batch is expected later this afternoon and into the evening. Yet another may pass through overnight. Scattered showers will also remain possible between these waves. The highest chance for heavy rain and thunder will be with the middle batch late this afternoon and this evening.
Temperatures will only make it into the low 70s for most areas today. Dewpoints will be in the upper 60s. Tonight, temperatures will be slow to drop, mainly reaching the upper 60s to near 70 degrees by Tuesday morning.
Tuesday
What: Sun and clouds. A few showers or storms.
Rain should be harder to come by on Tuesday as the frontal position shifts northward. This will open the area up to more heat and humidity, with highs in the low and locally mid 80s. Dewpoints will push into the low and even mid 70s, making it feel very humid. This will prime the atmosphere for thunderstorms, but there may not be much to trigger any storms. One possible source of a trigger could be thunderstorms over the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes Monday night, making their way into the area later Tuesday.
The highest chance for this will be over the southwestern Finger Lakes, but many areas may end up staying dry. There may also be a chance for some overnight storms, but this remains very uncertain. Any storms that do fire up, though, could easily become severe with damaging winds, hail, and a localized tornado threat. Torrential downpours will also be likely.
It will be another very warm and muggy night with lows in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
Wednesday
What: Scattered showers and storms.
Of all the days within this pattern, Wednesday is the one that has my attention the most.
Showers and thunderstorms seem more likely, especially over the eastern half of the region. It will continue to be very warm and humid, with highs in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints over 70 degrees. Strong wind fields aloft will aid in providing any storms that develop all of the necessary ingredients to turn severe with a threat for all modes of severe weather, including a tornado and flash flooding threat.
This is not a certainty yet, and the greatest threat could develop outside of the Finger Lakes, or the various factors could become less well aligned. Continue to monitor the forecast over the next couple of days as things become more clear.
Thursday
What: A few showers, mainly early
The frontal boundary should pass through as a cold front later Wednesday or early Thursday, bringing an end to the soupy, unsettled pattern. There may still be a few showers around Thursday morning, and it may take a little time to fully clear out the humidity. The afternoon should have more sun and lower dewpoints than the morning, though. Highs will reach the upper 70s. Nighttime temperatures will be slightly lower in the low and mid 60s.
Friday
What: Sun and clouds,
Friday has the highest chance of being totally dry and sunny. Temperatures will settle into the mid 70s with dewpoints falling to the low 60s. Friday night will be pleasantly cool with lows in the mid and upper 50s.
Saturday & Sunday
What: A few showers
The weather this weekend should be devoid of any large, powerful weather systems that bring widespread, significant rainfall. However, what is less certain is whether there will be some scattered showers from time to time, or if one or both days will end up dry. Temperatures should be cooler, with highs in the low 70s and nighttime temperatures in the 50s.
Next Week
Labor Day, next Monday, is currently looking dry and sunny. Uncertainty surrounding the weather Saturday and Sunday casts a shadow of doubt on Monday as well, though… so we will just have to see how things evolve over the coming days. Dry weather may persist into Tuesday, but scattered showers will become more likely later in the week. Temperatures through the middle of the week should remain in the lower half of the 70s. The spread in possible temperatures late in the week is too broad to draw any conclusions at this time.
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