A stalled out frontal boundary remains draped over the region with waves of atmospheric energy passing along the front bringing waves of rain and thunder. This pattern will continue today and tomorrow, interacting with a warm and humid air mass. Occasional severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will be possible, especially but not exclusively across the southern half of the region. Thursday will be a day of transition as the front moves south and less humid, more tranquil weather settles in. A couple showers may be possible on Sunday, but most of the Labor Day Weekend is looking pleasant, albeit a touch on the cooler side.
Published Tuesday, September 1
Tuesday
What: Early showers storms, a few more late.
One of the waves of atmospheric energy is passing through the region early this morning with some showers and thunderstorms. These will mainly clear out by mid-morning, though there could be some redevelopment over the far southeastern Finger Lakes that lingers into the late morning hours.
Some sun should work out behind this and continue into the afternoon. Temperatures will warm to around or above 80 degrees while dewpoints climb into the low and mid 70s. This will prime the atmosphere for additional showers and storms this afternoon, but there will not be much in the way of atmospheric energy to trigger storms.
Still, subtle boundaries left behind by this morning’s activity, as well as terrain and lake influences, may pop up a storm or two this afternoon. The southern half of the region is most likely to see this occur. Any storm that does develop could quickly become severe with damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours.
Ultimately, though, most areas will remain dry this afternoon and evening. Overnight precipitation should be limited to stray showers or storms, though any storm could still remain strong even overnight.
It will be a very warm and muggy night with lows in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
Wednesday
What: Scattered showers and storms.
A substantial packet of atmospheric energy will pass through sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening, followed by a second overnight. The exact position and timing of these remains a challenge for the weather models to resolve, so there are still questions in the fine-details that need answering.
Any storms that develop in the afternoon will have a chance for damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours. Whether these are isolated, widespread, or mostly outside our region is still uncertain.
Additional storms are likely overnight, around or after midnight. While some severe threat may develop, flash flooding concerns will increase, especially if any area sees heavy rain today, again Wednesday afternoon, and then again Wednesday night.
Temperatures Wednesday will reach the low and mid 80s with dewpoints well into the 70s. Some heat index values may approach 90 degrees. Nighttime hours will remain in the 70s until the early morning Thursday, helping fuel the torrential downpours and potentially strong thunderstorms.
Thursday
What: Morning showers
Rain Wednesday night may linger into Thursday. Any flooding that occurs during the night may also have lingering impacts early Thursday. The afternoon should see improving conditions with sun and clouds and no more than a stray spit of rain early on. Highs will be in the upper 70s with dewpoints only slightly lower around 70 degrees. Thursday night will be dry with falling dewpoints and lows in the mid 60s
Friday
What: Sun and clouds.
Friday should be dry and sunny with less humid weather. Temperatures will settle into the mid 70s with dewpoints falling to the low 60s. Friday night will be pleasantly cool with lows in the mid and upper 50s.
Saturday
What: Sun and clouds.
Saturday should also be partly cloudy and mainly dry. A stray shower cannot be totally ruled out, but anything that falls should be isolated, brief, and very light. Temperatures will reach the low 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s. Winds will be from the north-northwest at around 10 mph, but weakening in the afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.
Sunday
What: A few showers.
There is a higher chance for a few showers on Sunday, though it should not be a washout of a day either. Most of the showers will be light and brief. Highs will remain in the low 70s and lows in the mid 50s. Winds will be from the northwest around 5 mph.
Monday (Labor Day)
What: Sun and clouds.
Little will change overall for Monday, with a mix of sun and clouds, low humidity, light northwest winds, and highs in the low 70s.
Next Week
The weather models continue to show a wide range of possible temperatures later next week, ranging from a bit hot to rather chilly. The truth will likely be somewhere in the middle. Rain chances will be spotty for the middle of the week, then increase late in the week.
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