This morning, I outlined two areas and times to watch. It is time for an update now:
The first being an uncertain chance for isolated supercells in the far northeastern Finger Lakes into the Mohawk Valley. Despite a decently favorable environment, there has not been enough of a forcing mechanism to trigger storms in that area. The one exception may be the stronger cell over Lake Ontario north of Rochester. There is still a chance for discrete cells to form, but the chances are lower. This is good news.
The second was a line of rain and embedded thunderstorms, which is showing up clearly across western New York and western Pennsylvania. Some of the Pennsylvania storms have been severe and triggered 2 tornado warnings.
Ahead of the line, the atmosphere is only marginal for further intensification (the best conditions remain just east of the Finger Lakes). Still, there is a history of severe weather, so it will be worth keeping an eye on for the next few hours.
The Storm Prediction Center has put out 2 discussions over the course of the afternoon for the potential for a severe thunderstorm watch. Nothing has been issued yet, though.
This update will expire at 8 PM
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