The next weather system will arrive in the Finger Lakes on Thursday with showers and a chance for some thunderstorms. Showers will linger into Friday and possibly Saturday. Temperatures will quickly warm starting Sunday with a hot and eventually humid week ahead next week.
Wednesday
What: More sun than clouds.
Wednesday will have plenty of sunshine and just a few clouds mixing in. No rain is expected. Northwest winds will be gentle. Afternoon highs should make it into the mid 70s, with most areas a degree or two warmer than on Tuesday. Nighttime temperatures will fall back into the 50s.
Thursday
What: Thunderstorms possible
Some uncertainty remains in exactly how Thursday will play out. As is frequently the case in thunderstorm situations, the influence of potential morning showers will have a role in how the afternoon plays out.
At this time, I am expecting at least a few showers on Thursday morning with a potential for some widespread but light shower activity. This should help limit the thunderstorm potential in the afternoon, but will not completely remove it. I do expect a few scattered thunderstorms, in addition to more showers, to develop in the mid and later afternoon.
While the atmosphere will not be particularly robust for storm growth, the winds are favorable for some storm organization and strengthening. As we saw last week in a somewhat similar (but not identical) set up, strong winds can overcome other parameters that are meager to support severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.
The overall risk is less than last week, but still worth watching… which I have been doing closely in the background since the weekend and will continue to do so. Be sure to check out tonight’s Weather Planner post as well as tomorrow morning’s post.
Friday
What: Rain showers
Scattered rain showers are expected in the wake of Thursday’s weather system. This should not be a widespread, steady rain, but more along the lines of the on-and-off brief showers. Temperatures will be in the mid 70s.
Saturday
What: A few rain showers
Much of Saturday should be dry with just a few afternoon showers expected. It is worth noting, however, that low pressure moving along a frontal boundary will bring more widespread and heavy rain to our south. There are a few outlier models trending this rain further north, resulting in about a 10-15% chance that Saturday turns into a washout instead. I ultimately don’t think that will happen at this point, but it is enough of a trend and signal that I have my eye on it.
Sunday
What: Sun and clouds. A shower?
Sunday should be mostly dry, but a stray shower in the afternoon cannot be totally ruled out yet. Temperatures will start to increase on Sunday with many areas around 80 degrees. Humidity levels should remain comfortable, though.
Monday
What: Sun and clouds. A shower?
Temperatures will continue to climb with highs well into the 80s on Monday. Humidity may start to nose upward as well, but should not be too high yet. Like Sunday, a stray shower cannot be totally ruled out, but generally dry weather is expected.
Tuesday
What: Getting hot
By Tuesday, it will be hot with a chance that highs may be pushing 90 degrees. Humidity will continue to come up as well. A pop up afternoon shower or storm is possible, but generally not expected at this time.
Further Out
Humidity should become heavy and uncomfortable by Wednesday at the latest with dewpoints pushing toward or above 70 degrees. Temperatures will remain hot for several days late next week with at least a couple chances at hitting 90 degrees. Temperatures become less certain toward the 4th of July Weekend. The atmosphere will have plenty of fuel for showers and storms during this time period, but what sort of small disturbances or larger weather systems may or may not be present to jump start storm development is uncertain at this time.
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