Tuesday Evening Hyper-Local Storm Update

PLEASE read this no-hype forecast. There is a lot of storm hype, panic and confusion out there due to the complex nature of this event.All along, this storm has been advertised as complex, low confidence and a very difficult forecast. It continues to be so, with a plethora of variable to consider, including precipitation timing, precipitation intensity, temperature and elevation. Some areas on my snow maps have changed drastically- others have remained about the same.

I made an attempt to really combine all of the factors and nail down the subtle differences across the region with this evening’s map. However, my efforts will still ultimately be inadequate, as large variations are likely over short distances on a scale smaller than I can produce a map at. That being said, I feel decent about the general location of my zones.

The highest snow totals will probably be over the higher terrain of the eastern Finger Lakes. They will get the most precipitation as snow tonight and will hold onto the snow into Wednesday before a second batch Wednesday night. Areas south of Lake Ontario should also see higher amounts thanks to influence from Lake Ontario, particularly Wednesday night. Areas south and west, especially in the lower elevations, will not see more than a minor snowfall.

Please keep in mind the hyper-sensitivity this storm will have to elevation and location when listening to and sharing forecasts. Broad statements are no longer good forecasts due to the variation. It is all about location. The pendulum of hype is starting to swing from panic to disbelief that the storm will be significant at all. However, the key points below have been and remain valid. Some areas will not see much of a storm- others will see a storm that impacts their day-to-day lives.

Thank you for all of your comments, shares and positive feedback. This has been a very challenging system for all meteorologists. Right or wrong, we are trying our best! 🙂