If you have been enjoying the warm weather so far this December, you are going to love this forecast.
A very warm weather pattern is setting up across our region for the next 5 to 7 days, but the core of the warmth will be in Sunday and Monday. The pattern is starting to show its first signs of setting up this morning.
Low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will drag a weak cold front through the Finger Lakes later today. Temperatures will still rise into the mid 50s by this afternoon. As the front settles to our south, temperatures will slide back into the upper 30s tonight.
The front will combine with another front over the Midwest Friday morning as low pressure develops over the Plains. This combined front will start to lift back north as a strong warm front. Warmer air will start to seep back into the Finger Lakes on Saturday, with highs reaching the low 50s. Clouds will be thick, but precipitation should hold off until the evening. Even then, only a few scattered showers are expected.
The front will move into the region overnight Saturday before stalling just north of the Finger Lakes. Temperatures will actually rise Saturday night into the mid 50s, with highs near 60 degrees on Sunday. This is right near the record highs for most areas in the Finger Lakes.
The front will push a little further north on Monday, so temperatures will have a chance at getting a touch warmer. Record highs on Monday are closer to the mid 60s. We will likely fall just short of those records. Monday is less certain as well, as a cold front will approach later in the day. This front will have a decent shot of rain and some wind. But the air behind it will be anything but cold.
Temperatures will remain near or above 50 degrees for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday next week. Beyond that, it looks as though winter may finally take a jab at the Finger Lakes, with temperatures falling below normal by the weekend. Most models at least show some lake effect flurries in the region, but the pattern will have to be watched in case it spins up something more serious.
This cold shot will last a few days to a week and may just be enough to tempt us into dreams of a White Christmas. I doubt that it will be the onset of true winter though, with some more mild weather likely for later in December and maybe into early January. I do still think the cold and snow will come though and that this cold shot is indicative of larger changes occurring in the global weather pattern.
