A wet and windy storm system will impact the Finger Lakes Wednesday and Thursday. Some thunder may even be possible for some areas Wednesday evening.Rain is already widespread across the Finger Lakes this morning and should continue through much of the morning. A few patches of mixed precipitation may linger early in some isolated pockets, but the precipitation should be primarily rain. Winds will be gusty, with top gusts mostly under 40 mph.
Temperatures will hover in the 30s for the morning and early afternoon. The rain will likely let up for a time, but should increase in coverage again during the afternoon. By late in the afternoon, we should start to see some vastly different weather conditions develop across the region.
For areas further north and west, temperatures will remain in the 30s with rain continuing. Winds should actually decrease as the low pressure approaches and moves overhead.
For the eastern Finger Lakes, however, warm air will surge in and temperatures will jump well into the 40s and even near 50 degrees. This warm surge will come in on strong south winds, with gusts over 40 mph possible.
I am still watching for the potential of a line of heavier rain and occasional thunder. Such a line could bring even stronger winds aloft down the surface. As I mentioned on Monday, I would not be surprised to see a severe thunderstorm warning or two pop up, even if the lightning and thunder is limited.
I would also like to mention that a severe weather outbreak, which started yesterday along the Gulf Coast, will move into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic today. Strong, damaging winds and a few strong tornadoes will be possible in these areas.
Temperatures across the eastern Finger Lakes will start to drop after the potential thunderstorms passes. By dawn Thursday morning, temperatures should again be fairly uniform across the region with upper 30s and low 40s.
Temperatures will drop from west to east Thursday as colder air wraps around the system. Light to moderate rain will continue to fall and will gradually change to snow. A couple of inches may fall before the snow ends Thursday evening.
Though the chances for rain will be high for much of the next two days, much of the rain will be light to moderate and will be on and off. This should keep rain total between 1 and 1.5 inches. Flooding, therefore, is not expected, except in some poor drainage areas and as a result of any ice jams that may form.
Quiet, but chilly weather will move in for Friday with some breaks of sun and highs in the low to mid 20s.
