Morning rain showers will transition to a steadier, widespread rain by the afternoon hours today.
Wednesday, April 19 Rain
After two nice days, it is back to the April showers in the Finger Lakes as a pair of storm systems will move into the region. One of these systems will bring rain today, while the other will move in Thursday evening.
Some scattered showers are already in the Finger Lakes this morning, mostly across the northern and western areas. Scattered, on and off showers will continue through the morning hours as temperatures rise into the 50s.
Those showers will begin to coalesce into a large area of widespread, mostly steady rain during the early afternoon. Much of the mid and late afternoon will be quite wet as a result. Some of the rain may come down hard at times.
The widespread rain should push south after 5 or 6 pm. However, there will likely be numerous showers lingering in the area into the evening and overnight hours.
Temperatures today will top out in the mid 50s. The south wind is already gusty this morning and will continue to be for most of the day. The higher elevations of the eastern and southern Finger Lakes will see the highest gusts this morning, possibly over 40 mph.
Rain and Thunder Thursday Evening
The rain showers from the first system should taper off before the sun rises Thursday. Clouds will remain fairly thick though, so not much in the way of sun is expected Thursday.
If the sun does manage to work out some, temperatures could respond by warming close to 70 degrees. More likely, however, is afternoon highs in the mid 60s.
Most of Thursday will remain dry, though a brief afternoon shower is not out of the question.
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop over Michigan, southern Ontario and Ohio Thursday afternoon. By Thursday evening, these storms will be crossing Lake Erie and moving into western New York. Areas along the shore of Lake Erie will have to watch for possibly damaging winds and frequent lightning.
As the atmosphere cools after sunset, these storms will start to lose some of their intensity as they push towards the Finger Lakes. At this time, I am not expecting them to remain severe in our region, but some lightning and gusty winds will still be possible, particularly over the western areas.
Regardless of any thunder and lightning, rain is likely across the entire area Thursday evening with some showers lingering into Friday morning.
Between the rain today and tomorrow, most of the Finger Lakes should see over an inch of rain. Locally, up to 2 inches may fall for some areas.