Some Sun Thursday
Morning cloudiness should give way to at least some partial sunshine for a brief time on Thursday.
A large area of abnormally moist air has set up across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. This is being fed by south winds between high pressure off the coast and low pressure over the Gulf States.
The Finger Lakes region is just on the fringe edge of this air mass, resulting in clouds but no rain.
Another area of high pressure moving across Canada is helping keep the moisture from pushing further north. In fact, this high will supply dry air which could erode the cloud cover away.
Already this morning, skies in far western New York are clearing, even as widespread steady rain falls from northeastern Pennsylvania into the Catskills and Hudson Valley.
This clearing will attempt to move east across the Finger Lakes late this morning and into the afternoon.
The chances that this will be successful and result in some sunshine will be highest for areas further north and west. Ultimately, though, I do think most areas will see at least a little sunshine, if not a rather pleasant, sunny day.
Temperatures should mostly rise into the low and mid 70s this afternoon with some 60s right along the shore of Lake Ontario.
Clouds, Rain Return
The sunshine will be short-lived. As the Canadian high pressure moves east, our winds will shift to the east, then southeast and clouds will make their way back in.
Initially, the clouds will be high in the atmosphere and some sunshine will filter through. The clouds will thicken though and become more overcast.
Little if any sunshine is expected on Friday with highs in the mid 60s.
By Saturday morning, rain will be spreading into the region. There is still some question on whether the rain will be showery or steady. The trends seem to point towards a rather soggy Saturday morning before precipitation tapers off later in the day.
Additional showers are also possible for Sunday, again, especially in the morning.
Temperatures Saturday are likely to top out in the upper 50s, though areas near Rochester could sneak into the 60s late in the day. Sunday will be a bit warmer, with 60s more likely.
Skies should clear somewhat for Monday before another small disturbance passes through on Tuesday.