Warm Week Ahead
The Finger Lakes will have several days of well above normal temperatures before much colder air works in late in the week.
An active storm track over the middle of the country and a high pressure system that will build south along the East Coast will combine to push warm air back north into the Finger Lakes.
Before that happens though, the frontal boundary between cool air to the north and the warm air to the south is starting the day overhead. Very little precipitation is occurring with this front, but areas of dense fog are commonplace this morning. Please use headlights and give yourself a little extra time traveling this morning.
Temperatures will warm from south to north this morning. By noontime, most areas should be at least approaching, if not exceeding 70 degrees. Fog will lift, leading to some partial sunshine. Sunshine is least likely over the Southern Tier, where southeast winds will keep some low level moisture in place.
High temperatures this afternoon will be in the mid and upper 70s for most of the Finger Lakes. A few low 80s will also be possible between Rochester and Buffalo.
Tonight will be very warm and muggy. Dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in low temperatures only just getting below 70 degrees.
Tuesday and Wednesday should bring more of the same with low 80s spreading across the northern Finger Lakes. Clouds will remain stubborn further south where mid and upper 70s are more likely.
No rain is expected Monday afternoon, Tuesday, or Wednesday with frontal systems well to our north and west with high pressure our dominate feature.
While warm, this should not be a historic warm event. Record highs in Ithaca this week are mostly in the upper 80s, primarily set back in the late 1930s. On average, Ithaca’s warmest temperature during the month of October is 79 degrees and Ithaca reaches 80 degrees in October about 48% of the time.
Big Changes In Store
On Thursday, a strong cold front will move through the Finger Lakes. At this time, it looks like the front will arrive sometime during the morning hours.
Rain and thunderstorms will be likely along the front, though severe weather is not anticipated.
Temperatures will still reach the low 70s as cool air moves in slowly at first. Thursday night, temperatures will start to fall more substantially with low 40s by Friday morning.
Friday will likely start out with some clouds but late day sun will be possible. High temperatures will struggle to get much beyond the low 50s.
This will become the new normal for at least a week or two. Temperatures will mostly be in the upper 40s and low 50s for highs, though undoubtedly the day-to-day variation will lead to some warmer, and some colder days.
Overnight temperatures will generally settle in the upper 30s and low 40s. Again, higher and lower values will be likely depending on daily evolution of the weather.
It seems likely that frost will become an issue as well.
I’ve also had several questions about the possibility of snow during the latter part of the month. It is much too soon to identify any days which could have some wet snow mixing in, but with well below normal temperatures expected into the end of the month and it being completely normal for our region to see a little snow in October, I would not be surprised.
Early indications are that November may warm back up significantly though. Time will tell if that becomes reality.