Cloudy, windy, and cold behind front

finger lakes weather forecast friday october 12 2018 cold cloudy windy nighttime rain lake effect weekend weather
The warm air is long gone. Friday will be a chilly, blustery and cloudy day in the wake of the cold front. Rain moves in tonight. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Pattern Change Complete

The pattern of well above normal temperatures is now a thing of the past. Instead, temperatures for the foreseeable future will generally be below normal.

Temperatures are in the 40s with a few lake-enhanced low 50s this Friday morning. Strong northwest winds behind Thursday’s cold front continue sending colder air into the region. These winds will gust over 30 mph through the early afternoon, after which they will gradually lessen and become more westerly.

There is little hope for seeing sunshine today. Thick clouds are entrenched over the region and will remain in place throughout the day.

finger lakes weather surface weather map friday october 12 2018
This morning’s surface map shows plenty of chilly air to the west of the Finger Lakes while Michael continues to track northeast just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. [Click map to zoom]
A couple of isolated lake effect rain showers will be possible, especially close to Lake Ontario. Most areas will probably not see very much, if any rain today.

Temperatures will generally hold steady today, with upper 40s and low 50s for daytime highs.

Lake effect rain will become better organized tonight near the southeast shore of Lake Ontario. A more widespread rain will also move in from the southwest, mostly between midnight and 6 am Saturday.

Most areas will see less than a tenth of an inch overnight, but within the lake effect across far northwestern Wayne, northern Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties, a half-inch to an inch could fall.

Overnight lows will mostly be at or above 40 degrees in the Finger Lakes and near Lake Ontario with upper 30s in the Southern Tier and into Central New York.

Lake showers will persist over far northern and far western areas throughout Saturday while some breaks of sun work out in other areas. Highs on Saturday will be near or just shy of 50 degrees.

Active Week Ahead

Sunday may end up being one of the nicest days we can expect to have for some time.

High pressure will bring a mix of morning clouds and afternoon sun. Temperatures will be close to, but just short of normal. Highs will reach the mid and upper 50s.

Morning lows on Sunday will be rather cold though. Frost will be possible across the Southern Tier with lows in the mid 30s. Upper 30s and low 40s are expected further north.

Our next storm system will roll in for Monday. Rain showers will be commonplace with a gusty south wind. Temperatures will make a brief push into the low or mid 60s, but it will be short lived.

Morning showers Tuesday will transition to some afternoon sun with highs again around 50 degrees.

A front will move in on Wednesday with more rain showers and highs sticking around 50 degrees.

If enough moisture wraps around the backside of the front, lake enhanced rain and snow showers will be possible Wednesday night into early Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday may not even reach 45 degrees, though there is still plenty of time for this to moderate warmer.

This generally pattern should persist into at least the final days of October.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.