After a few showers today, there is an increasing chance for some rain Thursday over the southeastern half of the region. Saturday, too, seems to be trending rainier and stormier. Showers are likely on Sunday and may linger into Monday. Friday, however, is looking completely dry. Temperatures will remain in the 70s during the day and mainly in the 50s at night.
Published Wednesday, August 19
Wednesday
What: Scattered showers
A small weather system will move through today with some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. A large band of rain moving through western New York this morning will dissipate as it moves into the Finger Lakes. Showers should remain scattered and focused especially from the late morning through the first half of the afternoon. Most areas should still see at least a little rain. Severe weather or flooding is not expected.
Temperatures will be in the mid 70s with dewpoints in the mid 60s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph will turn to the west and northwest later in the afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected for the nighttime hours with lows in the upper 50s.
Thursday
What: Sun and clouds to the northwest, perhaps some rain to the southeast
A second weather system will pass by to the south on Thursday. Weather models have been trending north with this system and many now bring at least a few showers into the southeastern Finger Lakes on Thursday, if not some areas of steadier rain. The inconsistency and disagreement among the models is likely due to the small nature of this system, which makes it more difficult for the models to pick up on its fine details. At the very least, I would prepare for a few showers from Bath to Syracuse and points eastward, keeping in mind that steadier rain may also fall.
To the northwest, sunshine will mix with clouds. The more rain there is to the southeast, the more clouds there will be to the northwest. A few showers may be possible, especially in the western Southern Tier.
Dewpoints will be comfortably low in the mid and upper 50s. Afternoon highs will stick to the mid 70s, though some areas could be cooler if a steadier rain develops. Winds will be from the northwest around 5 mph. Clearing skies are expected at night with some patchy fog in the usual areas. Lows will range through the 50s.
Friday
What: Sun and clouds.
Quiet weather is expected on Friday with another typical summertime mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures and humidity levels will be in the same general range as Thursday, with highs in the mid and upper 70s and dewpoints in the 50s. Winds will be light and variable. Partly cloudy nighttime skies are expected with the typical patchy river valley fog. Lows will mainly be in the mid and upper 50s.
Saturday
What: Afternoon showers and storms.
The chances for rain and thunderstorms Saturday, especially during the afternoon, is increasing. It is still too early to tell exactly how the day will unfold, but there could be some slow moving storms with heavier downpours.
Winds will be from the southeast and eventually south at 5-10 mph. Temperatures will be in the mid and upper 70s and dewpoints creeping up into the low and mid 60s. Rain showers will persist through Saturday night. Lows will be in the low 60s.
Sunday
What: Scattered showers and storms
Unsettled weather will continue on Sunday with scattered showers and perhaps a few storms. Depending on the location of the parent low pressure system, there is at least a chance for mainly stray showers. On the flip side, it also could end up more of a persistent rain, though this seems more probably for eastern areas than western ones. Stay tuned. Temperatures will probably top out in the low and mid 70s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
Monday
What: A few showers.
By Monday, this weather system should be pulling away. Some lingering showers will still be possible, especially in the morning. Afternoon highs will mainly be in the low 70s with some blustery west and northwest winds possible.
Tuesday
What: Sun and clouds.
High pressure should bring a mix of sun and clouds by next Tuesday. Highs will be in the mid with dewpoints in the 50s, making it feel quite comfortable. Winds will be from the northwest at around 10 mph.
Later Next Week
Weather models are coming into better agreement on a weather system passing through sometime in the Thursday/Friday time frame late next week with some rain showers. Temperatures will continue to hold mainly in the 70s during the daytime, and somewhere in the 50s to around 60 degrees at night.
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