Today’s rain forecast continues to be refined, with rain expected mainly this afternoon and still over the southern areas. After a quiet Friday, showers and storms will increase Saturday afternoon. Showers will then linger into Sunday and Monday before some more dry weather for the middle of next week. Temperatures will continue to be in the 70s, though some areas may struggle to get beyond 70 degrees today and Monday.
Published Thursday, August 20
Thursday
What: Afternoon rain south
Forecast confidence is increasing for today’s weather now that the evolution of low pressure passing to our south is unfolding. This includes several updates from how things looked last night with the Weather Planner post.
The two biggest updates are that rain this morning is unlikely, and in refining how far north the rain will make it.
Radar early this morning showers rain moving through western Pennsylvania, but far delayed from what models were showing last night. The northeastward track of the rain should still bring it into the southern parts of the region, but probably not until the midday and afternoon hours.
The northern edge of the rain should be along a southwest to northeast line that should remain south of the northern tips of the Finger Lakes. Measurable precipitation should mainly be south of a line from about Penn Yan to Tully, though some spits of rain are not out of the question north of there. The steadiest rain will come across southern portions of Steuben, southern Schuyler, Chemung, southern Tompkins, and Tioga counties from about noon to 5 or 6 PM.
Skies will quickly clear from west to east during the evening hours with patchy fog overnight.
Temperatures will range from the mid 70s along and north of the Thruway to the upper 60s where rain is steady this afternoon. Winds will be light from the north, and dewpoints will hang out around 60 degrees. Temperatures tonight will be cool with most areas away from immediate lakeshores in the low 50s.
Friday
What: Sun and clouds.
Quiet weather is expected on Friday with a typical summertime mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures will be in the mid and locally upper 70s with dewpoints in the 50s. Winds will be light and variable, if not outright calm. Mostly clear nighttime skies are expected with the typical patchy river valley fog. Lows will mainly be in the mid and upper 50s.
Saturday
What: Afternoon showers and storms.
Saturday morning looks mainly dry, though a few pop-up showers may start to appear by midday. Rain and thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon, becoming numerous by the mid and late afternoon hours. Individual storms will be slow moving, so some areas may see prolonged periods of rain. Thankfully the atmosphere will not be ladened with excessive amounts of moisture, so rainfall rates and amounts should remain moderate. Flooding and severe weather are generally not expected, but some isolated low-end nuisance flooding or gusty winds will be possible.
Winds will be from the southeast and south at 5-10 mph.
Temperatures will probably top out in the low and mid 70s, peaking in the early afternoon. Dewpoints will be in the mid 60s.
Showers will diminish after sunset with mainly quiet conditions overnight. Lows will reach the low 60s.
Sunday
What: Scattered showers
Scattered showers are likely on Sunday, especially during the latter half of the morning and through the afternoon. Compared to Saturday, the rain Sunday will be lighter, more scattered, and less likely to remain parked over a single location for an extended period of time. There may even be some breaks of sun here and there.
Winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, with the strongest winds to the west. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 70s with mid 60s dewpoints remaining.
Like Saturday night, Sunday night should be mainly quiet. It will be cooler, with lows in the mid 50s.
Monday
What: A few showers.
Showers will again develop on Monday, especially near Lake Ontario as some possible lake enhancement kicks in. Daytime high temperatures will struggle to reach 70 degrees and may fall back into the 60s through the afternoon. Northwest winds will blow at 10-15 mph.
Tuesday
What: Sun and clouds.
High pressure should bring a mix of sun and clouds by next Tuesday. Highs will be in the low 70s with dewpoints in the 50s. Winds will be from the northwest at around 10 mph.
Wednesday
What: Sun and clouds
While less certain than Tuesday, Wednesday is also looking dry with a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures may creep up slightly, reaching the mid 70s with a light south wind. Dewpoints, likewise, may get back to around 60 degrees.
Late Next Week
Rain chances will increase late next week, but the incoming weather system does not look too potent at this time. I suspect that, even though rain will be possible to end next week, there will be plenty of dry time, too. Temperatures will not be any warmer to close out August with highs remaining in the 70s. September may see temperatures slide back a bit further as it kicks off the following week.
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