Quiet, cloudy weather ahead of weekend nor’easter

finger lakes weather forecast thursday october 25 2018 weekend noreaster
Thursday will be another cloudy, chilly day in the Finger Lakes. Friday will be a bit nicer before a very stormy weekend. [Photo by John Gregoire]

More Clouds for the Finger Lakes

Low level moisture will continue to be trapped in the Finger Lakes until winds shift late today.

This means another cloudy, chilly day is ahead.

Temperatures this morning are starting out in a typical pattern, with mid and upper 30s in the north with low 30s and a few upper 20s further south.

Almost all the area is precipitation free except a couple of stray showers mostly near and north of Syracuse.

I expect no additional precipitation today as the atmosphere dries in advance of high pressure moving through the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic regions.

finger lakes weather surface weather map thursday october 25 2018
Thursday morning’s surface weather map shows low pressure systems over the Gulf of Mexico and Upper Midwest with widespread precipitation in between. High pressure ahead of these systems will keep the Finger Lakes dry until after midnight Friday. [Click map to enlarge]
This high will remain to our south and west through the afternoon, keeping northwest winds in place.

With the wind and clouds, high temperatures will struggle to get much beyond 40 degrees today.

The wind should die down and swing around to the south this evening, resulting in a little sunshine sneaking in before the sun sets.

Skies will become partly cloudy overnight, but the south wind should keep temperatures from falling too far. Expect morning lows Friday to be in the upper 20s across the Southern Tier with low and mid 30s for most other areas.

Weekend Nor’easter Updates

A deck of high clouds will already be moving into the area Friday morning.

These clouds will be out ahead of both low pressure in the Upper Midwest and low pressure across the Gulf of Mexico.

While the Gulf system turns north along the coast, the Midwestern low will linger to the west. The two systems will interact, but not merge.

Friday will be increasingly cloudy but no rain will fall. Temperatures will get a boost as the south wind continues, topping out in the mid and upper 40s.

Rain should arrive from the south during the pre-dawn hours Saturday as the nor’easter continues to strengthen and move north.

It seems increasingly likely that a core of heavy rain will move directly into the Finger Lakes for much of Saturday. Rain amounts between 1-2 inches should be widespread across the area on Saturday.

Along with the rain may come wind, though how the wind fields evolve is less certain. Areas most prone to high winds will be higher terrain in the eastern and southern Finger Lakes. Wind gusts over 40 mph could be possible. This wind will come from the northeast, which is not a wind direction we see too often here.

The heavy rain will push north Saturday night, leaving on and off showers for Sunday. If the low tracks far enough west, the eastern Finger Lakes may even get some dry time Sunday.

Temperatures Saturday should be in the low to perhaps mid 40s. Mid 40s are more likely on Sunday. The chances for snow with this system remain low and I do not expect accumulations in our area.

The confidence with this system is increasing, but even slight changes in the track or strength of the storm could result in significant changes to the forecast. It is not too uncommon to see such adjustments even just 12-36 hours ahead of the storm.

Continue to monitor the forecast you can trust with Finger Lakes Weather.

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Don’t let worries of the weekend weather change your plans — come on out to Ithaca Wizarding Weekend and stop by the Ye Olde Goat Cart booth, presented by yours truly!
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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

3 Responses

  1. James Slater

    Do you do a Marina Forecast for the Finger Lakes. 🎣

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil

      Not yet but I am hoping and planning to have something along those lines in 2019. Any ideas on format and needed details would be helpful and welcome!

  2. John Gregoire

    A few flurries here this morning