Sunday-Monday Wind Storm Details for the Finger Lakes

finger lakes weather forecast wind gusts sunday february 24 2019
The wind storm will be at its most intense Sunday afternoon, but only for a small area where gusts over 70 mph are likely. Click to enlarge.
finger lakes weather forecast wind gusts Monday February 25 2019
Most of the Finger Lakes region will see peak wind gusts of 55-65 mph occurring Monday morning. Click to enlarge.

Wind Storm Details

A long duration, multi-phased wind event will bring the risk for tree damage and power outages for the Finger Lakes Sunday and Monday.

Wind events in our region are often complicated matters with varying impacts due to differences in terrain. This event is complicated further by multiple phases and fluctuations in wind speeds.

In an attempt to break down this event clearly, I will address a few different regions individually in order of the severity of the event.

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Lake Erie Downwind Plains

Buffalo, Niagara, Batavia, western Rochester suburbs

Peak Gusts: 70-75 mph
Timing: Sunday afternoon
Other Gusts: 55-65 mph

Winds will increase after midnight Saturday night with 45-55 mph southwest wind gusts. Gusts will increase to as high as 60 mph through Sunday morning. The strongest gusts of 70-75 mph will occur for several hours Sunday afternoon. West-southwest gusts of 55-65 mph are expected Sunday night. A slight increase is expected Monday morning. Gusts will drop below 50 mph Monday afternoon and below 40 mph Monday night.

Lake Ontario Shoreline

Rochester to Oswego

Peak Gusts: 60-70 mph
Timing: Monday morning
Other Gusts: 50-60 mph

Southwest wind gusts of 40-45 mph will develop after midnight Saturday night. Gusts will increase to 45-60 mph Sunday morning and remain generally in this range through Sunday night. Winds will become more west-northwesterly Monday morning, leading to greater speeds of 60-70 mph off Lake Ontario which will continue into the afternoon. Winds will gust between 35-45 mph through Monday night and possibly through Tuesday.

Finger Lakes Higher Elevations

Bristol Hills, southern Cayuga/Onondaga counties, portions of Cortland/Tompkins counties

Peak Gusts: 60-65 mph
Timing: Monday morning
Other gusts: 50-60 mph

South winds of 45-55 mph will develop after midnight Saturday night and persist into Sunday morning. Winds will turn to the southwest and drop Sunday afternoon with gusts of 40-50 mph. Winds will increase again Sunday evening and Sunday night with 50-60 mph winds gusts from the west. West-northwest winds will peak Monday morning with 60-65 mph wind gusts. Gusts will be between 50-55 mph Monday afternoon, then drop to 30-35 mph Monday evening through Tuesday.

Southern Tier

Dansville, Bath, Wellsville, Corning, Elmira

Peak Gusts: 55-60 mph
Timing: Monday morning
Other Gusts: 40-50 mph

Southerly wind gusts of 35-45 mph will develop Saturday night and continue through Sunday morning. Winds gusts will turn to the southwest Sunday afternoon and increase to 45-50 mph, which will continue through the night as the direction turns more westerly. Gusts will increase to 55-60 mph Monday morning before decreasing to 45-55 mph Monday afternoon. Gusts will drop below 35 mph Monday evening and below 35 mph Monday night. Northwest gusts to 35 mph will redevelop for Tuesday.

Interior Finger Lakes

Geneva, Penn Yan, Ithaca, Auburn

Peak Gusts: 55-60 mph
Timing: Monday morning
Other Gusts: 35-50 mph

South winds will gust to 40-45 mph before dawn Sunday, increasing to 45-50 mph Sunday morning. As winds turn to the southwest Sunday afternoon, gusts will drop to 35-45 mph. Winds turn to the west and increase to 40-50 mph Sunday night. Wind will peak Monday morning with 55-60 mph gusts from the west-northwest. Gusts of 45-50 mph should be expected Monday afternoon with 30-35 mph gusts Monday evening through Tuesday.

Wind Storm Safety

Winds of these strengths are capable of downed trees and power lines, especially with a soggy soil due to snow melt and rain and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday. The hardest hit areas could have prolonged power outages several days long.

You can prepare for the wind now by securing loose objects outdoors, including gutters or siding that may have come loose in previous wind events this winter.

Gather food, water, medicines, flashlights, and batteries in an easy to find, centralized location.

When driving, keep a firm grip on the steering wheel and watch for falling limbs and downed wires.

Never go near a downed wire — it may be live and could electrocute you. Never run a generator indoors due to the risk of carbon monoxide.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have three young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

3 Responses

  1. Avatar
    Betty Head
    |

    Very informative…. thank you!

  2. Avatar
    Sidney
    |

    Terrific report Drew…thank you for all you do. FYI…clicked to enlarge and got an error message on both wind maps. Stay safe too!

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      |

      Thanks for letting me know. Fixed it up.