Lightning, Heavy Rain Primary Threats
An approaching cold front will trigger numerous thunderstorms this afternoon across the Finger Lakes region.
Out ahead of the front, warm and humid air is in place. Temperatures should shoot upward in a hurry this morning. By the early afternoon, mid and upper 80s will be widespread across the region.
With muggy dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s, the atmosphere will be favorable for thunderstorm development.
Storms should start as individual cells that will grow into small clusters. These will be possible during the early and mid afternoon. A broken line of storm clusters may also move through later in the afternoon. Some areas could see more than one thunderstorm today as a result.
Some of these clusters may become briefly severe. This is despite virtually no support for severe weather from winds aloft. We have seen storm cells and clusters produce small areas of wind damage and hail multiple times over the last week or so despite similar conditions aloft.
The lack of wind in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will prevent a more widespread severe event, however. The most widespread threats, therefore, will be frequent lightning and periods of heavy rain. Some minor flash flooding could occur if multiple heavy storms hit the same areas repeatedly.
Thunderstorms are possible any time after 1 PM. The broken line of storms is most likely between 4-6 PM. After that line passes, the threat for storms should end with just a few evening showers lingering.
5:30 PM Update
It has been a busy afternoon with many storm cells and clusters, a couple of which have downed a couple trees. The front is entering the western Finger Lakes and a few new cells have recently developed over Steuben, Yates, and Seneca counties. Whether or not these form into a broken line or remain discrete storm cells, they should be the last significant storms to move through.
Lighter rain with a rumble of thunder or two currently extends from a Rochester-Geneseo-Wellsville line. This will sweep across the region this evening and will signal the end of the thunderstorm threat.
Areas of fog will develop this evening in the wake of the rain. Some of the fog could become rather dense.
Another Quiet Stretch
Temperatures and humidity levels will come down behind the front as another stretch of quiet weather unfolds.
Wednesday may have a lingering morning shower, but some sun should work out as the day goes on. High temperatures will reach the mid and upper 70s.
Thursday will have a mix of sun and clouds. Friday will be mostly sunny. No precipitation is expected either day. Highs Thursday will range from the upper 70s to the low 80s. Friday should be in the low 80s for all but the highest elevations of the region.
A few isolated pop up showers or storms will be possible both Saturday and Sunday. Most areas will not see rain at all this weekend though. Temperatures will continue to be warm, but not hot, with low and mid 80s Saturday and Sunday.
The quiet weather may stretch all the way into Monday and Tuesday next week. Another front should drop through the region late Tuesday or Wednesday, bringing the next chance for more widespread rain.
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Louise Bement
Good answer, Drew!
Vin
Hey Drew,
Thanks for all you do. We appreciate your weather reports and look forward them in the morning. It would be really great if you could start discussing the climate crisis/ collapse and how it is impacting local and global weather patterns, as education in our region is of utmost importance and your reach is wide.
All the best.
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Hi Vin! Thanks for the comment.
My focus is on the weather for the next 1-7 days. I am not a climate expert or predictor. It is also a highly politicized and controversial topic that is best left to face-to-face conversations and discussions and not the internet. We have all seen how quickly even the smallest debates, warranted or unwarranted, can get out of hand online. I’ve built a positive community here and I hope to keep it that way 🙂