High pressure is directly over the Finger Lakes this morning, resulting in clear skies and a chilly start.
Morning temperatures range through the 40s but will climb steadily under sunny skies. By the afternoon, most areas should get above 70 degrees.
No rain is expected today, and even clouds will be hard to come by until late. Some thin clouds will work in during the late afternoon and evening well in advance of a cold front.
Winds will become southerly overnight and increase in speed. This will keep temperatures above 60 degrees overnight.
Saturday will start with a mix of sun and clouds. A few showers and maybe a thunderstorm will move in during the morning. The amount of rain is uncertain and will have an influence on our weather later in the day.
If there is little to no rain, temperatures should easily push into the low and mid 80s by the early afternoon. A cloudier, rainier morning would hold temperatures back with mid and upper 70s more likely.
After 3 or 4 PM, new showers and a few thunderstorms will pop up as the cold front moves into the area. The warmer it gets, the higher the chance for thunderstorms. Any storms that get going may be able to tap into gusty winds in the atmosphere, posing a small severe threat.
Widespread severe weather is not expected, though a few severe thunderstorm warnings may be issued, especially if we take the sunnier, warmer route.
Precipitation will move southeast and dissipate as the sun goes down and cool air will start to move back in. Sunday morning lows will be in the mid 50s.
North winds will keep hold over the region throughout Sunday. The wind will not be too strong, but it will have a big impact on our temperature. Look for highs to only reach the mid 60s despite plenty of sunshine.
Early Autumn Roller Coaster
Next week will be a classic change-of-the-season clash between warm and cold air.
We will start off with a warm front on Monday that may touch off a few evening showers. Most of Monday should be dry with a mix of sun and clouds.
Temperatures will already be climbing with highs in the low and mid 70s. Monday night’s temperatures should then hold in the low and mid 60s.
Tuesday will have at least partial sunshine and southwest winds behind the warm front. Temperatures will be propelled into the low and mid 80s. A couple late day showers or storms cannot be totally ruled out.
The weather is more uncertain for Wednesday and Thursday as a front slowly sinks south. Rain and possibly thunderstorms will be likely along the front. The very warm air south of the front will be pushed into the Mid-Atlantic, and the coldest air yet of the season will move in to replace it.
Once the front clears our area either Wednesday or Thursday, high temperatures will settle in the 50s. These cool temperatures will persist through the weekend with only small amounts of warming expected beyond that.
Depending on how the cloud cover unfolds during this cold spell, there could be some localized frost concerns in the coldest areas across the Southern Tier and into Central New York.
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