Wind, rain move in today and stick around into Thursday

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday october 16 2019 rain wind thursday cool
After a windy morning, rain will overspread the region this afternoon. The rain will end tonight, only to return for Thursday with more wind. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Wet & Windy

A strong area of low pressure is located west of Buffalo this morning while a second low is just starting to take shape over the Carolinas.

As is usually the case with a strong low pressure to our west, gusty winds have developed over the Finger Lakes and will strengthen a bit more this morning. Top gusts will be between 40-50 mph, with the highest gusts over the higher elevations.

These winds will continue to come from the south and southeast. Winds speeds will drop this afternoon and become light this evening.

Most areas should stay dry this morning, but rain will overspread the Finger Lakes during the midday and early afternoon hours. The rain will fall steadily through the afternoon before ending from west to east early this evening.

Temperatures will rise into the upper 50s and low 60s before the rain begins but will fall into the low and mid 50s this afternoon. A steady drop into the 40s will occur overnight.

The overnight period should be mostly dry as the rain shifts to the east.

Rain will spread back into the region from the northeast Thursday morning as the secondary low moves into New England and nearly stalls out. Steady rain will fall much of the day before transitioning into a lake enhanced rain later in the afternoon.

As a result, the afternoon rain will focus southeast of the Great Lakes in the areas that typically see lake effect on northwest winds. Here, rain will continue well into the night. Showers, fog, and drizzle will even linger into the first half of Friday as well.

The wind will become blustery once again on Thursday, this time from the northwest. Top gusts will be between 35-45 mph and will last most of the daylight hours. The wind will slowly drop off during the evening and overnight, but gusts over 30 mph will remain possible.

Temperatures Thursday will start in the low and mid 40s and will rise very little during the day. Most areas will see top temperatures in the mid and upper 40s.

Total rain amounts will be greatest along the shore of Lake Ontario and over Cayuga and Onondaga counties. Here, localized amounts over two inches will be possible. Most other areas will see between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain. The Southern Tier should, generally speaking, see the least amount of rain.

Rebounding for the Weekend

Friday will be a cloudy, cool day. Fog and drizzle will gradually become less and less as dry air seeps into the region. Winds will gust between 20-30 mph, still coming from the northwest.

High temperatures will range from the mid 40s over the higher elevations to the low 50s near Lake Ontario.

Skies will eventually clear Friday night, leading to a frosty Saturday morning. Widespread 30s are expected with frost and freeze conditions likely.

Winds Saturday will be light but will swing around to the south. Combined with start-to-finish sunshine, this should help temperatures rebound. Look for highs Saturday afternoon in the mid and upper 50s.

Sunday is looking warmer yet with 60s a possibility. Some clouds and a few showers may work in, but the forecast has been trending more towards a mostly dry day.

Temperatures in the 60s will continue into Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will eventually move through later Tuesday with rain.

 Due to some updates with my host, I have noticed several errors in my website. I’ve already fixed a number of them this morning, but if you see anything abnormal, please let me know.

The Zip-Code forecasts are now functioning again.

Such issues are not uncommon when making significant back-end changes of this nature. These changes were necessary to keep the costs of Finger Lakes Weather from ballooning. Thank you for your patience!

Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have three young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.