Sunshine Wednesday ahead of minor snow accumulations Thursday

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday november 6 2019 sunshine cold front snow accumulation
Wednesday will be a quiet and sunny day but minor snow accumulations are likely Thursday as a cold front moves through the region. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Quiet Wednesday, Front Thursday

High pressure is in control of the Finger Lakes for Wednesday, keeping our weather tranquil.

There are a few lake effect clouds this morning east of Lake Erie, but no precipitation is falling. These scattered clouds should dissipate this morning, leaving skies mostly sunny for several hours.

Later this afternoon, some new clouds will move in from the west. These will be thin clouds high in the atmosphere and should not block out the sun.

Today will start with west winds gusting to 20 mph, but as the high passes over this afternoon, the winds should become nearly calm. Winds will increase slightly tonight as a gentle south breeze.

High temperatures today will top out in the mid 40s. A few higher elevations will only be in the low 40s. Temperatures this evening will initially drop into the mid and upper 30s with a few lake shores staying near 40 degrees. As the south wind develops and clouds increase, the temperature should hold steady or even gain a degree or two overnight.

Shortly after sunrise Thursday, scattered, light precipitation will move in from the northwest as a cold front approaches. This should mostly fall as rain, though a few higher elevations may see snow from the onset.

Precipitation will remain scattered through the morning before becoming more widespread during the afternoon. Rain will turn to snow from northwest to southeast and from higher elevations to lower elevations.

Steady snow will fall for several hours during the afternoon as temperatures drop below the freezing mark. The snow will end during the late afternoon and early evening hours, again from northwest to southeast.

Snow accumulations will be elevation dependent tomorrow, with a coating to an inch for most areas with around two inches over higher elevations. As temperatures fall below freezing in the late afternoon, roads may become a bit slick.

A bigger snowfall is unlikely. As is often the case with snow events, the models were too aggressive early on developing an area of low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic, thus leading to the possibility of much higher snow amounts in the Finger Lakes. However, this low will not even start to show up until it is over the Atlantic Ocean and will remain much weaker than the models were showing a few days ago.

Cold Settles In

After the snow ends early Thursday evening, scattered snow showers will develop south of the Great Lakes. These flurries and brief bouts of heavier snow will continue into the early afternoon Friday. An additional coating to a localized inch will be possible.

Outside of the snow showers, some breaks of sunshine will show.

Temperatures will drop well into the 20s by Friday morning. Areas near lakes will be in the upper 20s while the typically colder higher elevations will reach the low 20s. Most areas will be in between with mid 20s.

Friday’s highs will only range from near 30 degrees over higher terrain to the low 30s. It will also become windy, with gusts as high as 40 mph from the northwest. The winds will make it feel even colder.

Skies will become partly cloudy Friday night and into Saturday. Morning lows Saturday will mostly be between 20-25 degrees with afternoon highs 35-40 degrees.

Clouds will increase Saturday night and into Sunday ahead of another cold front. This front will move through Sunday night with another light dose of snow.  High temperatures ahead of the front on Sunday will reach the mid 40s, but behind the front, Monday will struggle even to reach 30 degrees.

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the upper 20s with some scattered flurries, especially on Tuesday. Temperatures will work back into the 30s for the latter half of next week, but will probably not get much warmer.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have three young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.