Low pressure will bring a band of snow through the Finger Lakes, followed by significant and dangerous lake effect snow in nearby areas.
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WHAT
*** This forecast focuses on the FINGER LAKES region. For more information on the lake effect snow event over the Tug Hill region and southwestern New York, please refer to the website for the National Weather Service in Buffalo. This forecast also focuses on known details through Thursday morning. ***
An area of low pressure will track from north to south across the Finger Lakes overnight tonight. This low will then stall out to the north Thursday-Saturday.
As the low moves through, a band of rain will turn to snow prior to dawn Thursday. Lighter snow will taper off Thursday morning, with scattered snow showers and gusty winds developing for the remainder of Thursday.
Lake effect snow will develop behind the low. Combined with strong winds, blizzard conditions are expected to the north and west of the Finger Lakes. However, in the immediate Finger Lakes region, few impacts will be felt, outside of strong winds, until the lake effect moves south into the area late Friday or Saturday.
ALERTS ACTIVE
The following weather alerts are active in the Finger Lakes Weather forecast area as of 3:30 PM Wednesday:
BLIZZARD WARNINGS are in effect for the following counties, listed alphabetically:
Allegany, Wyoming
*NOTE- The determining factor in issuing a Blizzard Warning is sustained strong winds and reduced visibility*
A WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect for the following county:
Genesee
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect for the following counties, listed alphabetically:
Cayuga (northern), Livingston, Monroe, Ontario, Wayne
WIND ADVISORIES are in effect for the following counties, listed alphabetically:
Cayuga (southern), Chemung, Cortland, Onondaga, Schulyer, Seneca, Steuben, Tioga, Tompkins, Yates
A WINTER STORM WATCH is in effect for the following county:
Onondaga (for Friday-Saturday)
WHEN
Scattered showers this evening will transition to a band of heavy rain that will cross the region between 12-3 AM. The rain will begin to turn to snow from west to east between 2-5 AM. Higher elevations will change over to snow before nearby lower elevations.
Heavy snow will fall for anywhere from less than an hour, to two or three hours, immediately following the changeover.
Lighter snow will fall after 5 AM for a few hours before tapering off from south to north by 10 AM. Lake effect snows will then kick in, with scattered snow showers in the immediate Finger Lakes region with heavy snow in nearby areas to the north and west.
HOW MUCH
Through 10 AM Thursday, most of the Finger Lakes region will see around or less than an inch of snow. Higher elevations may see 1-2 inches of snow, with the best chance for over two inches coming in the hills of the far eastern Finger Lakes.
To the west, heavier snow amounts are likely, both from the low pressure system Wednesday night and the beginning of the lake effect event Thursday morning. Snow amounts of 1-2” will be possible in the I-390 corridor, with 2-4” and 4-8” ranges further to the west.
TEMPERATURES
Temperatures will remain in the low 40s this evening and into the overnight before falling quickly into the 30s after midnight. By dawn, temperatures will range from the mid 20s in the west to the low 30s in the east.
Temperatures will continue to fall Thursday morning and will spend most of Thursday in the mid 20s.
TRAVEL IMPACTS
Given the timing and briefly intense nature of the snow, early morning travelers can expect slight travel delays.
Sloppy roads, especially in rural areas, will linger into the morning commute and mid-morning hours.
Minimal travel impacts *in the immediate Finger Lakes region* are expected Thursday into Friday. However, travel north toward the Tug Hill, and west of I-390 in lake effect prone areas will be dangerous with blizzard conditions.
OTHER IMPACTS
Overnight, south winds may gust over 40 mph for a time over the eastern Finger Lakes as the low passes by.
Strong west winds with 40-50 mph gusts will redevelop during the mid and late morning hours Thursday over the entire region. Strong winds will continue through Thursday and will only slowly decrease in intensity Friday and Saturday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE
Medium- The primary are of uncertainty is over higher elevations in the eastern Finger Lakes regarding the snow amounts Thursday morning. There are equal chances of seeing more snow than predicted, or less snow than predicted. The amounts outlined above are the most likely amounts.
FUTURE SNOW OUTLOOK
Scattered snow showers will continue in the immediate Finger Lakes region through Thursday night into Friday with minor accumulations. Significant lake effect snow will continue, especially east of Lake Ontario, during this time.
Lake effect snow will move south Friday night into Saturday. Several inches of snow may fall Saturday, especially across the northern and eastern Finger Lakes.
FUTURE UPDATES
- Regular Thursday morning blog post (Between 7-8 AM Thursday)
- Regular Friday morning blog post (Between 7-8 AM Friday)
- Saturday Snow Report (Between 3-5 PM Friday)
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
- Get the forecast for your Zip Code
- Finger Lakes Weather Radar
- Ask Meteorologist Drew Montreuil a question
- Advertise on Finger Lakes Weather
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