A weak disturbance will trigger afternoon showers and thunderstorms today across the Finger Lakes.
After a sunny morning, fair weather clouds will develop. By the 1-2 PM timeframe, the first showers should start to pop up.
These will increase and move from west to east through the Finger Lakes this afternoon. Areas south of I-90 have the best chance at seeing rain.
The thunderstorms should be weak with only occasional lightning and no severe weather. Rain amounts will not be overly heavy, and any individual storm cluster should last an hour or less.
Temperatures will remain in the 70s today with a few places near I-90 topping out around 80 degrees.
Today’s winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph with gusts reaching 25 mph as the rain and storms move through.
Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear tonight, though there could also be a little evening fog. Temperatures will drop into the low 60s in the north and the mid and upper 50s in the south.
The chances for rain on Friday look minimal, but one or two stray pop up showers cannot be ruled out. Most, if not all areas should stay dry with a mix of sun and clouds.
Temperatures Friday will be a couple degrees warmer than today, with more areas approaching or getting just above 80.
A cold front will approach the region on Saturday. A cluster of decaying thunderstorms from the Upper Great Lakes should move through the area during the early morning or even predawn hours.
This cluster should bring some substantial rain to a good portion of the region. Many areas should see between 1/3 and 2/3 an inch of rain. Some thunder will also be possible, along with a minimal chance for a little hail or a stronger gust of wind.
Sunshine will come out behind the rain and temperatures Saturday afternoon will bounce back to around 80 degrees. At this time, additional thunderstorms are not expected in the afternoon with the severe threat shifting south towards Pennsylvania.
We are still 48+ hours away from this, so while the trends have been moving away from severe weather locally, it still bears watching.
A few showers may linger early Sunday before sunshine increases. Temperatures will reach the upper 70s Sunday afternoon.
The rain chances for next week are declining. Wednesday looks like the best chance for some rain.
Temperatures throughout most of next week will hover in the low 80s.
Hotter weather remains on the models about ten days out but continues to be pushed back as the appointed time approaches. This could be a signal that it is just model bias, but temperatures should remain near or above average, nonetheless.
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