Another hot day with a few storms

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday july 7 2020 heat advisories thunderstorms
Heat and humidity will continue to increase with a small chance for thunderstorms today and a greater chance on Wednesday. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Tuesday-Wednesday Overview

Heat Advisories are in effect for a large portion of the Finger Lakes today, but even areas not under the advisory will be hot.

The National Weather Service issues heat advisories when the heat index reaches the mid 90s. The heat index is a calculated value that combines heat and humidity to produce a “feels like” temperature.

There is some debate about the worthwhileness of the heat index value, but for our purposes, it is sufficient to say that today will be hotter and more humid than yesterday.

Most areas should reach or exceed 90 degrees today with dewpoints increasing to the mid 60s.

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will pop up during the afternoon, providing a few areas with a double relief of some needed rain and cooler temperatures. Most areas, however, will stay dry.

The best chance for rain seems to along a southwest-northeast line through the middle of the region, stretching from Allegany County to Onondaga County. Rain is also possible outside of this area, just less likely.

Showers and storms will quickly dissipate this evening with a few areas of fog where rain fell. Overnight lows will hover around 70 degrees.

Wednesday will be similar, only with a better chance for thunderstorms. This time, the thunderstorms will fire along a west-east line through the center of the region, then move south. Areas south of the northern tips of the Finger Lakes will have the best shot for rain.

A few of these storms could have some gusty winds or hail, so that will be something to watch for in tomorrow’s forecast.

Temperatures may not quite reach 90 degrees in some southern areas, thanks to the rain and thunderstorms. Further north, where rain is less likely, low and even mid 90s are likely for highs.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday july 7 2020
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Heat Peaks, then Retreats (Briefly?)

The chances for rain and thunderstorms will decrease for Thursday and Friday as our heat wave reaches its peak.

Neither day is expected to have any showers or storms in our region.

Widespread 90s are likely on Thursday and Friday, with many places pushing into the mid 90s. A few areas along I-90, especially in and around Rochester, may even push into the upper 90s. The chances for 100 degree heat are not great, though.

The forecast for the weekend is complicated, though Saturday too may sneak into the low 90s for a time.

Two weather systems will need watching this weekend. First is low pressure and a cold front moving through the Great Lakes. The timing of the front is a bit uncertain, but could start triggering showers and storms as early as Saturday afternoon.

Second is a low pressure that could develop into a tropical storm along the Mid-Atlantic coast. The chances of this system turning inland and having a direct impact on our region are low, but there could be some interaction between the storm and approaching front.

Hopefully, these two systems will bring some beneficial rain to the region, but we may just miss out on the heavier amounts. There is still plenty of uncertainty and time for this to change, though.

Temperatures will back off for the first half of next week with highs in the 70s and 80s. However, the heat may come right back late in the week with another multi-day stretch in the 90s possible.

Don’t Miss an Important Update

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.