Best Chance for Rain Until the Weekend
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will fire up today across the Finger Lakes, putting a limit on how hot it will be for those areas.
The areas most likely to see rain today will be from about the northern tips of the individual Finger Lakes southward into the Southern Tier.
There is some disagreement on the models this morning regarding the timing and coverage of the thunderstorms. At the least, scattered storms will pop up during the mid to late afternoon. However, there is a chance for more widespread coverage, starting early in the afternoon.
The earlier the rain comes, the lower the maximum temperatures will be. Still, most places have a shot at 90 degrees, and for northern areas where rain is less likely, temperatures should easily push above 90.
Frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail may accompany the storms. Brief heavy downpours will be possible, but the storms should move along fast enough that flash flooding will not be a concern.
Locally dense fog will develop tonight in areas that see rain, especially later in the day.
The chances for rain will decrease for Thursday and Friday, which should end up being the two hottest days of the week. A stray shower or storm cannot be totally ruled out across the Southern Tier on Thursday or in the far western Finger Lakes on Friday. Almost all areas will be dry both days, though.
Highs should be into the mid 90s in the northern half of the Finger Lakes region, with low 90s in the south. Dewpoints will continue to be in the low and mid 60s, making it muggy but not oppressive.
Complex Weekend Weather
By late Friday, what may be a named tropical system will be making its way up the Mid-Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, low pressure will be working into the Great Lakes.
The possible tropical system, which would be named Fay, is unlikely to impact our region directly. Much of New England, which is in a worse drought than we are, will see some much needed rain from Fay.
However, the extra moisture surrounding Fay may help the Great Lakes low spread rain into our region. The interaction between these two systems is very uncertain, though.
A best-case scenario would be a slower, steady rain of an inch or two. However, there are possibilities for both very little rain, or excessive rain where flooding would become an issue.
The rain looks most likely from late Saturday into early Sunday. Additional thunderstorms may also be possible on Monday, however.
Humidity levels this weekend will rise as the tropical air gets pumped into our region. Temperatures will still be near 90 on Saturday but will retreat to the mid 80s for Sunday and Monday.
Please continue to monitor the forecast over the next few days.
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