Temperatures Bottoming Out
High pressure is building east through the Great Lakes, kicking a persistent low pressure out of eastern Canada.
Today will be another day of northwest winds between these two systems. The wind will be a touch less than yesterday, but gusts over 20 mph are still likely.
This set up will continue to pump cool air into the region with temperatures bottoming out today and tonight.
Temperatures today will range from the upper 60s in higher elevations, to near or just above 70 degrees everywhere else. Overnight temperatures will mostly be in the 50s, but parts of the Southern Tier will fall into the 40s.
These are the coolest temperatures we have had since mid-June.
There will be a small chance for a few stray showers this morning, but the radar is mostly quiet thus far and the satellite imagery only shows a few areas of cloudiness. Cumulus clouds will bubble up quickly during the mid-morning hours, but then should decrease through the afternoon.
Skies will turn mostly clear tonight and winds will calm as the high moves in overhead.
Lack of Rain Continues
With high pressure passing through, the next several days will be dry with near-zero rain chances.
Thursday will be sunny with just a few passing clouds from time to time. Areas further north will have a higher chance for seeing some cloud cover.
Winds will turn to the southwest and south on Thursday, helping temperatures bounce back from the chilly morning start. Look for highs in the upper 70s with a few low 80s.
Friday’s cloud cover will be a reversal of Thursday, with southern areas having a higher chance for clouds compared to the north. These clouds will be a mix of fair-weather clouds and a deck of thin clouds. Overall, though, ample sunshine is expected.
Temperatures will continue to rise with highs pressing into the mid or even upper 80s.
Saturday looks cloudier as Friday’s southern clouds track further north. Expect some sunshine filtered through the clouds. A stray shower cannot be ruled out, but most areas look like they will stay dry.
Saturday’s highs will probably be a degree or two less than Friday thanks to the extra clouds.
By Sunday, sunshine should return, mixing in with fair-weather clouds. Highs in the mid and upper 80s will continue to be likely.
So far this week, I’ve mentioned the low confidence for next week’s weather. Things are starting to tighten up a bit for the first half of the week, though the second half of next week still has very low confidence.
Dry, warm weather looks like it will probably continue for Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday next week. A couple stray showers cannot be ruled out. There remains a small chance for cooler, rainier weather if a front to the northeast sets up closer to home. That is not the way the models are trending at this time, though.
At some point late next week, the heat should break for some cooler weather. When exactly that happens, and how hot it gets before that happens, remain the sources of major uncertainty in the medium-range forecast.
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