Warming back up in a hurry

finger lakes weather forecast friday october 9 2020 sunny warm weekend
Sunshine and southwest winds will push temperatures up, peaking well in the 70s before a cold front rumbles through Saturday afternoon. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

From 50s to 70s

Yesterday, high pressure to our west helped deliver a shot of cool air on chilly northwest winds.

Now, this high has pivoted to the Mid-Atlantic coast, placing the Finger Lakes in the warm return flow on its backside.

Thanks to clearing skies last night, temperatures are cool this morning. Upper 30s and low 40s were commonplace, and a few isolated pockets of mid 30s showed up.

As the sun climbs higher into the sky this morning, the chill will quickly be replaced by climbing temperatures. The bright sunshine of today will be aided by a steady but light southwest wind.

Mid 60s will be widespread this afternoon, though Cortland County and the hills of southeastern Cayuga and southern Onondaga counties will sit in the low 60s.

Late this afternoon, skies may get a touch hazy as some wildfire smoke pushes in the from the west. This smoke should be less than our other smokey episodes, and the thickest smoke will move through overnight.

Also passing through tonight will be a deck of thin clouds. No rain is expected, but the clouds and an increase in the southwest wind will keep temperatures mild. Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid 50s across the Southern Tier and into Cortland County to the mid 60s in and around Rochester.

Southwest winds will peak Saturday afternoon with gusts of 25-35 mph. The strongest winds look to be west of Keuka Lake and along Lake Ontario.

Temperatures Saturday will reach the mid or even upper 70s. Dewpoints will climb into the 50s as a cold front approaches from the north.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front. Conditions are not great for severe weather, and there is less wind in the atmosphere compared to Wednesday’s set up, but a few storms could have some strong wind, nonetheless.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast october 9 2020
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Early Week Rain

Sunday is trending toward being a dry, albeit cloudy day. The best chance for some sun will be early on before clouds associated with the remains of Hurricane Delta push in from the south. Rain is not expected during the daytime hours, though.

Saturday’s front should end up in northern Pennsylvania, allowing some cooler air to move in, but not the full force of the chill. Highs will range from the mid 50s near Lake Ontario to the low 60s in the Southern Tier. Most areas will end up around 60 degrees.

The biggest question in the forecast remains: when will rain move into the area beyond Sunday?

There remains a spread in the models between Monday, Tuesday, and even Wednesday as a weather system moves in from the Midwest and the remains of Delta track northward.

The timing of each system and their interaction are important keys that the models are having difficulty in simulating.

If the non-tropical system from the Midwest is quick enough, it may capture some of the moisture from Delta and push it north into our area. This could start Sunday night and continue through Monday.

In this scenario, the two systems end up merging and most of our rain is over Monday night. This scenario is the most favorable for amounts over an inch.

If the system is slower, most of the rain from Delta will stay to our south, with just a few scattered showers Monday. AS the system moves through on Tuesday, rain will be likely, but amounts will probably end up closer to a half-inch.

Unsettled weather will continue to be possible later in the week and next weekend, but the details remain highly uncertain.

Temperatures next week will be in the 50s during rainy periods but should reach the 60s otherwise.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.