Dry Air
Much of Friday will just be another cloudy day, but dry air will work in from the north during the afternoon.
The dry air will start to work on eroding the cloud cover, and by the nighttime hours, skies will become mostly clear.
The biggest question on the day is how quickly the dry air will move in and will the sun make an appearance before it sets.
The models are mixed on this question, with the Euro consistently showing clearing starting in the mid-afternoon, while shorter-term, higher resolution models tend to keep the clouds lingering until after sunset.
In either case, the clearing should take place generally from north to south as the dry air settles in.
Temperatures today will reach the mid and upper 20s. Any sun that works out early will help temperatures to the warmer end of that range. Overnight temperatures will drop into the teens and 20s, depending on topography and warming influences, like lakes.
Saturday will feature sunshine mixed with some thin clouds high in the atmosphere. Aided by the sunshine, high temperatures will reach the mid 30s for most with a few pockets of low 30s, namely in higher elevations.
Quiet Weather Continues
The sunshine will be short-lived as the dry air spirals out of the region and lake moisture once again becomes entrapped near the surface. This will lead to a cloudy Sunday with highs around 30.
Winds will turn to the south Sunday night and persist into Monday. The near-surface clouds will depart, but Monday will still be mostly cloudy thanks to a small disturbance passing through. Some afternoon snow showers will be possible with little to no accumulation.
Tuesday will be mostly cloudy with nearly calm winds. No additional precipitation is expected.
Both Monday and Tuesday will see highs in the mid 30s.
Another impulse of energy will pass through on Wednesday, but with little to no precipitation. It will be another cloudy day, though. Highs will reach the mid and possibly upper 30s.
The chances for precipitation will creep upward later Thursday into Friday and continue through the weekend. The models look chaotic, however, and are not keying in on any particular time as most likely for seeing precipitation.
This tells me there is a great deal of uncertainty in how the weather will evolve toward next weekend and beyond.
Generally, though, temperatures should continue to be in a typical January range from roughly 25-35 degrees.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Stay Updated With Email Alerts
Zeb
Drew,
Just curious to get your thoughts on the potential polar vortex anomaly that may cause significant storms on East coast predicting the jet stream to dip in a few weeks? I’ve read multiple sources that say this could be cold with major storms late Winter,
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
in the mid-range (so, next 14-21 days), there will be lower pressures across the Eastern US. It is not the Polar Vortex, despite what the hype-artists are spewing.
Does such a pattern sometimes lead to East Coast storms? Yes. Will it for sure? No.
Will we have an arctic outbreak? No, it doesn’t look that way. The core of this feature will settle over the southeastern US. Florida has a better chance of having frost/freeze issues than we have of highs being significantly different than what they are even right now.
In the long range…for what it is worth, which isn’t much….I see on the models an up and down pattern where these shots may become more frequent than they have been…but between them, it may be quite the opposite. I interpret that as a high possibility of fictious model feedback, a lack of a consistent pattern, and thus I would put even less stock than normal in any predictions for the rest of the winter.
Keep in mind that the lack of meaningful winter weather has a lot of meteorologists (and their producers!) and weather enthusiasts chomping at the bit, waiting for “The Big One”, and so there may some psychological overreacting to what is to come and wishcasting for big storms. They may happen, but we’ve seen this sort of hype before…
Zeb Strickland
Much appreciate your expertise in this. It really helps for planning for my business and field work.
I do also understand things can change on a dime,
Best
Zeb
Carole N Leach
Drew, here in East Homer we have been in persistent freezing fog/frozen drizzle off and on (more on, than off) since about 6 pm yesterday evening (1/7). Route 13 has had snow in it for about a 4 mile stretch, and dry everywhere else! It’s not showing up on any radar I’ve accessed. If you have time, I’d love to learn what’s going on here! It’s still precipitating right now, at 10 am on 1/8.
Thx, Carole Leach
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Hi Carole! It must be a little lake effect precipitation, possibly enhanced by the specific topography of your area. It is freezing drizzle/fog and not snow because the clouds are very low to the ground and thus not cold enough to produce snow crystals. The close proximity to the ground is also why it is not showing on radar…the energy beams the radar sends out goes up at a very slight angle. Over East Homer, the elevation of the lowest beam is about 2000’…which is pretty much the very top of the clouds right now. So, the energy is shooting overtop any precipitation and thus not seeing it.